Despite polls showing him trailing in South Carolina, Democratic presidential candidate Dick Gephardt is very upbeat about his chances here.

“I feel good,” the Missouri congressman said last week. “We’ve got a long way to go, but we can do well here. I’ve always felt that.”

In the most recent poll of S.C. voters taken by the American Research Group, Gephardt was tied for fourth place with U.S. Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts and New York civil rights activist Al Sharpton.

His trump card may be U.S. Rep. Jim Clyburn of Columbia, former chairman of the Congressional Black Caucus and arguably the most influential black leader in the state.

Clyburn’s endorsement is coveted by all candidates. Gephardt is believed to have the inside track.

In a recent “Dear Friend” letter mailed to supporters, Gephardt painted a rosy picture of his campaign.

“We’re going to win in Iowa,” he flatly predicted. “We have a plan to catapult into a clear lead by Feb. 7, 2004.”

The plan calls for him to finish in the top three or four in New Hampshire, and then to do well in the seven primaries and caucuses the following week.

“We plan to win more states and delegates on that ‘Mini-Super Tuesday’ than any other candidate,” he wrote.

He called South Carolina the most “prominent” state on that date.

“We’re in great shape there, too,” Gephardt said of the first-in-the-South primary. He noted that U.S. Rep. John Spratt of York has endorsed him, as has the South Carolina Conference of Black Mayors.

Gephardt also said many key operatives from Clyburn’s “political structure” are working for him. “I hope to receive his endorsement at some point. He is a close friend and has made many encouraging public remarks.”

Gephardt said a Clyburn endorsement would be a huge boost.

“He’s a very significant figure in this state, one of the real leaders of the Congress. He’s respected by all the members, Republican and Democratic, and has got the respect of everybody in South Carolina. Having his help and support would be very, very important. There’s no two ways about it.”

Clyburn has said repeatedly that he will not offer a primary endorsement any time soon. But veteran political observers would be shocked if he did not endorse Gephardt.

African-American voters are expected to make up a majority, or a near majority, of S.C. primary voters on Feb. 3.

Benedict College political scientist Glenda Suber says Clyburn’s endorsement would be critical because it would be noticed by the opinion leaders in the black community.

“He is plugged in well with the Democratic establishment and the black community in a very solid way. The political apparatus will support whomever he endorses,” she said.

Francis Marion University analyst Neal Thigpen says if Clyburn does decide to endorse one candidate, it could decide the outcome because of the likelihood that black voters will swing the election.

Gephardt, the former House minority leader, dropped out of the presidential race in 1988 after winning Iowa. He was broke and had no money to go forward.

This time he hopes to raise $20 million. That’s enough to compete in Iowa, where he is favored, then hope for momentum to carry him through New Hampshire and then to South Carolina, which some say could be the defining primary.

The S.C. primary will be important in that it will be the first with a significant black vote. The party needs to know that it has a candidate who can attract black voters, Gephardt said.

“But I can’t sit here today and tell you which set of states or which state is going to be the determinant one,” he said. “I don’t know that now. But it’ll be important. That’s all I know.”

Gephardt has been running on a platform of providing quality health care coverage for all Americans, shoring up public and private retirement systems, and protecting American jobs by promoting an international minimum wage.