State primary could decide foe for Bush

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The state's Feb. 3 Democratic presidential primary is shaping up as a political Hurricane Hugo, capable of washing away dreams for some and creating new opportunities for others.

When the polls close Tuesday in New Hampshire, the seven-man field will begin heading to South Carolina. All have campaigned here, some a great deal, a few, like newly established front-runner Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts, very little.

Noting Edwards' campaign appearances in Greenville on Wednesday and Columbia on Friday, former state Democratic Party Chairman Dick Harpootlian said, "He gets it, he understands that South Carolina is probably going to be curtains for at least half the field. This is going to be the perfect political storm."

Adding to the impact will be a nationally televised debate Thursday night in Greenville.

"The stakes here are going to be extraordinarily high," said Joe Erwin, the state party chairman.

Larry Sabato, presidential scholar and director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, agreed, saying that "for the second consecutive cycle, South Carolina may well be the decisive factor."

In 2000, then-Texas Gov. George Bush used a South Carolina firewall to derail Arizona Sen. John McCain.

"If South Carolina is between Kerry and Edwards, that could determine whether this is a long or short campaign," Sabato said.

Seven contenders left

It's a seven-man field, although Tuesday's New Hampshire primary could further winnow it.

The major candidates:

Retired Army Gen. Wesley Clark is putting all his marbles into South Carolina.

Former Gov. Howard Dean, after a third-place setback in Iowa and a disastrous television performance, could fade away without a close second in New Hampshire.

Edwards, the local boy from Seneca, has become the next-door neighbor with appeal, organization and momentum.

Kerry, riding the "big mo" from victory in the Iowa caucuses last Monday, likely winner in New Hampshire, is wondering whether momentum can trump organization in South Carolina.

On the bubble:

Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman, the most conservative of the field and the party's 2000 vice presidential candidate, trails badly in the polls, lacks the depth of organization of some of the other campaigns, and is beginning to feel a money crunch. New Hampshire could be his last presidential hurrah.

Symbolic candidates:

U.S. Rep. Dennis Kucinich of Ohio, underfunded and underexposed, is the party's far-left contender this cycle.

The Rev. Al Sharpton, civil rights activist, has had the best lines in the campaign and showed that a little money, a big reputation, a sense of humor and a targeted message can go a long way.

Voters tuning in

Voters are beginning to pay attention as crowds increase at campaign events and polling shows the undecided diminishing.

Unlike the party's generally lackluster initial effort with a presidential primary in 1992, Harpootlian said, "This primary has engaged people. You'll have Kerry, Edwards, Clark, Lieberman and Dean all fighting like hell to prove they're still alive here. This is the showdown for Clark and Edwards."

There are several scenarios that could emerge from New Hampshire.

Harpootlian said his "gut tells me New Hampshire isn't going to put it away for anybody. If Dean had won Iowa and (wins) New Hampshire, he probably could claim South Carolina with momentum going in here. And he has a field organization here.

"If Kerry wins New Hampshire, he doesn't get that kind of bounce because he doesn't have organization on the ground here. I don't know that you can build one in a week," he said.

"If Edwards or Clark run ahead of Dean in New Hampshire, that's going to make it very competitive here," Harpootlian said.

Based on his widening leads, the most likely element in each scenario is that Kerry wins and breaks New Hampshire's established penchant for reversing the Iowa caucuses.

After that, the critical issue is who comes in second.

"The first story coming out of Tuesday night may be that it's a two-man race" between Kerry and Edwards, said Democratic consultant Donnie Fowler, but he cautioned against writing Dean off, citing reports from that campaign that Dean may have bottomed out in New Hampshire.

Fowler is a Columbia native who is helping with the primary's logistics. He was Clark's first campaign manager.

"The most important thing in these Feb. 3 states is momentum, not so much organization," he said. "It's going to be whether they have money to buy television and radio and how much coverage the press gives them. Let's see what happens Tuesday night."

Two-man race?

Dean showed as a weak to relatively solid second in four independent polls conducted at week's end, but that's a major setback for him. In the pre-Iowa days, he held a wide lead over a then-faltering Kerry, who was threatened with being eclipsed by Clark. While Clark was third in three polls, he was tied for second in one with Dean.

Edwards was a solid fourth and gaining, the polls showed, while Lieberman remained in single digits, ahead of the long-shot candidacies of Sharpton and Kucinich.

But a Newsweek magazine poll released Saturday and conducted after Thursday night's New Hampshire debate showed Edwards had moved into second place at 13 percent, behind Kerry at 30, leaving Dean and Clark tied at 12 percent.

"At this point, any good news out of New Hampshire would just be gravy," said Jenni Engebretsen, Edwards' South Carolina spokeswoman.

Although Lieberman has said he will soldier on, so did U.S. Rep. Dick Gephardt in the hours before he dropped out following a disastrous fourth-place finish Monday in Iowa, the next-door neighbor to his native Missouri. Lieberman skipped Iowa and has campaigned extensively in South Carolina but has not appeared to catch fire with voters.

A strong showing by Dean in New Hampshire could make South Carolina a four-way race, one in which Edwards' and Clark's contention that they can rally Southern voters will be put to the test, as will Kerry's momentum and ability to win in the Sunbelt.

An Edwards victory in South Carolina, some analysts have said, could be the beginning of the end for Clark and Dean, signaling a two-man — Kerry and Edwards — race going into the Feb. 7 Michigan primary and the Feb. 10 round.

"That's the most likely scenario, depending where Edwards and Clark finish versus each other and how Southerners in the last week react to Dean and Clark," Fowler said.

Dan Hoover covers politics and can be reached at 298-4883.