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The New Media Department of The Post and Courier

SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 10, 2005 12:00 AM

Ophelia keeps us guessing

Officials predict landfall late Monday --here, or from Georgia to Outer Banks

BY BO PETERSEN AND DAVID SLADE
Of The Post and Courier Staff

Hurricane Ophelia is looming and getting stronger. Forecasters on Friday called for a late Monday night landfall, most likely in South Carolina. Officials warned the Lowcountry to get ready.

The National Hurricane Center's official track brought the storm to land between Edisto Beach and Charleston as a Category 1 or 2 hurricane, with winds of 90 mph or more. Gale-force winds are expected to reach the coast between 2 and 5 a.m. Monday, and there is an increasing risk of rip currents as the storm gets closer.

AccuWeather forecasters expected it to make landfall around Hilton Head as a Category 2 storm.

But the computer model guidance tracks still scattered the landfall from Georgia to the Outer Banks in North Carolina. Both the center and private forecasters said there were too many weather variables at work to be more precise until Sunday, when the storm is expected to loop or make a sharp turn back to the coast.

"This is by no means a done deal. At this point, I wouldn't even rule out northern Florida. It's most likely a Category 1, but it could be a Category 2. There's even the outside possibility it could be a Category 3. The big thing is when will it turn west and how sharply," said center hurricane specialist Jack Beven.

Where it goes and how strong it gets "is going to depend on how the storm stews out there in the Atlantic," said Frank Strait, Accu-Weather meteorologist.

State Emergency Management Division officials on Friday kept, but didn't raise, its alert status. But the concern had heightened and a press conference was scheduled for today. Voluntary or mandatory evacuations would be called for depending on the storm's threat.

"We are watching this storm very closely. We're preparing for the storm. It's still out at sea; its path is still uncertain. But we're making sure the state of South Carolina is prepared if we have to do something," said spokesman John Legare.

Charleston Mayor Joe Riley urged area residents to use the weekend to take care of hurricane-related chores, in case Ophelia forces an evacuation, and make sure emergency plans and equipment are in place.

"Pay attention to your local media," said Cathy Haynes, Charles-ton County Emergency Management deputy director.

Ned Hethington, Charleston's interim police chief, said the 55 police officers and equipment that went to the Gulf Coast after Hurricane Katrina hit are back in Charleston. The city uses a system of neighborhood resident associations and block captains to keep track of residents who may need help evacuating during an emergency.

Howard Chapman, director of the Charleston Area Regional Transportation Authority, said the bus system is prepared to help evacuate residents if Charleston County's Emergency Operations Center activates its emergency transportation plan.

Riley said Hurricane Katrina is a reminder of the importance of following evacuation plans in the face of danger.

"It's important for people not to say 'I was OK in Hugo, so I'll be OK,' " Riley said.

HURRICANE PREPARATION

IF IT APPEARS BY SUNDAY THAT OPHELIA IS GOING TO BE A THREAT TO THE LOWCOUNTRY, THE POST AND COURIER WILL PUBLISH A SPECIAL REPORT ON HURRICANE PREPARATION.

KEEP TRACK

To follow the path of Ophelia, go to www.charleston.net/tracker.

Forecast

-- This afternoon: Turns from the northeast to the southeast

-- Sunday: Turns south and then southwest.

-- Sunday/Monday: Turns west then northwest, begins to come in.

-- Monday night/Tuesday: Landfall.


This article was printed via the web on 9/12/2005 9:01:42 AM . This article
appeared in The Post and Courier and updated online at Charleston.net on Saturday, September 10, 2005.