Forget Iowa and New Hampshire. South Carolina is shaping up as the battleground for the Democratic presidential nomination.

Since no clear front-runner has emerged after months of intense campaigning by nine candidates, South Carolina could be called upon to settle the muddled race — a role it as played in the past.

Some call it corrective action.

Few candidates have managed to win both Iowa and New Hampshire in recent elections. In many cases, the eventual nominee has come back after devastating losses in one state or the other.

In 2000, for example, then-Texas Gov. George W. Bush lost New Hampshire to U.S. Sen. John McCain of Arizona but captured the GOP nomination after winning South Carolina.

With its first-in-the-South primary, the Palmetto State could play a similar role for the Democrats in 2004.

“South Carolina may well be the defining primary,” says Emory University political scientist Merle Black.

The Iowa caucus is first up on Jan. 19. Eight days later, New Hampshire plays its traditional role as host of the first presidential primary.

After Jan. 27, the campaign for the party’s nomination becomes something of a national scramble. Six states — South Carolina, Missouri, New Mexico, Arizona, Oklahoma and Delaware — vote Feb. 3.

The Palmetto State contest is considered critical, as the first in which black voters will play a significant role.

“It will demonstrate who can win on Southern territory and who can carry the black vote,” said former Clemson University political science professor Charles Dunn, now at Grove City College in Pennsylvania.

Right now, the race is wide open. A mid-October Democracy Corps poll of South Carolina voters showed six of the nine candidates in a virtual tie.

U.S. Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina led with 14 percent, followed by U.S. Rep. Dick Gephardt of Missouri with 13 percent, retired Gen. Wesley Clark of Arkansas with 12 percent, U.S. Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut with 11 percent, and former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean and New York activist Al Sharpton, both with 10 percent. U.S. Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts, former U.S. Ambassador Carol Moseley Braun of Illinois and U.S. Rep. Dennis Kucinich of Ohio were all in single digits.

The survey, taken of 488 potential Democratic primary voters, had a margin of error of 4.4 percent, making it a dead heat.

A poll last week by the American Research Group had Clark in front in South Carolina with 17 percent, followed by Edwards at 10 percent and Lieberman at 8 percent.

The field could be winnowed down to four or five candidates by the time the race reaches South Carolina, making the primary a gateway to the nomination.

“Whoever wins here will be pretty hard to stop,” Francis Marion University political analyst Neal Thigpen said.

Some have used the word “king-maker” in describing South Carolina’s role. However, Carol Khare, vice chairwoman of the state Democratic Party and co-chairwoman of the Democratic National Committee’s rules panel, cautioned that’s a bit strong.

“But I don’t think anybody feels a candidate is viable who doesn’t do well in South Carolina,” she said. “The notion is that if you’re not salable in the South, you can’t win a general election.”

The black vote is essential.

It’s estimated African-Americans will make up a majority of the Feb. 3 primary voters and whoever wins the most black votes will be the victor.

But Clemson University political scientist Bruce Ransom looks for the black vote to split among the candidates, putting greater importance on white turnout, which he sees as the actual swing vote.

“I don’t think you can overlook the white vote,” he said.

Blacks make up 27 percent of the registered voters in the state. However, their ratio increases dramatically in a Democratic primary, where blacks make up 40-50 percent of the vote.

So far, none of the candidates appears to have an advantage with that critical voting bloc. Candidates are seeking endorsements from minority leaders to boost credibility among blacks.

All of the candidates pay homage to U.S. Rep. Jim Clyburn, D-S.C., past chairman of the Congressional Black Caucus, when they come to South Carolina.

Gephardt is believed to have an edge among that group. He has been endorsed by the S.C. Conference of Black Mayors.

No one knows for certain who is going to vote in this contest. S.C. Democrats last held a presidential primary in 1992. Bill Clinton won, and about 114,000 voters participated.

That number is expected to triple next year. Turnout will be driven by the candidates, Khare said, adding, “They are anxious to try their stuff here.”

It could be a free-for-all, particularly if one candidate wins Iowa and another takes New Hampshire.

“That certainly will make it more interesting,” Khare said.

“We matter.”

Reach Bandy at (803) 771-8648 or lbandy@thestate.com.