The two-man race to be the Republican who
challenges longtime U.S. Rep. John Spratt in November could become a
one-man race today.
But whoever the GOP candidate is will face a tough road, according to
a recent poll commissioned by Spratt that shows the incumbent has the
support of 60 percent of voters in the 5th district.
Republicans Ralph Norman and Park Gillespie have scheduled a joint
press conference for today concerning their race for the 5th
Congressional District. And while there has been no official
confirmation about the nature of the announcement, observers speculate
that Gillespie will say he's withdrawing from the race.
"That would make sense. Norman is obviously the national party's
choice," said Larry Sabato, a University of Virginia political
scientist.
A joint press conference makes it "pretty obvious that they've
reached an agreement" to have only one of them go forth as the
candidate, Sabato said.
"There's no way they would have a joint press conference to say
they're going to run against each other," he said.
Gillespie could not be reached for comment Tuesday. Asked whether
Gillespie is dropping out of the race, Nathan Hollifield, Norman's
campaign manager, said, "I'm not going to comment."
Norman, a first-term state legislator, also said he had "nothing to
add" to the skimpy details of today's press conference, scheduled for
10:30 a.m. at the York County Regional Chamber of Commerce office on
Main Street in Rock Hill.
Gillespie, a Clover resident who won the Showtime cable network's
"American Candidate" reality program, has called on the Republican Party
to be fair in the race. State and national GOP leaders have lined up to
support Norman, who was handpicked by the White House to challenge
longtime incumbent Spratt of York.
On Friday, Vice President Dick Cheney will be in Rock Hill for a
campaign fundraiser for Norman. Having the heavy hitters in Norman's
corner has put Gillespie at a clear disadvantage, observers have said.
Gillespie had raised $54,219 for his campaign though Dec. 31, according
to the latest campaign finance data. In contrast, Norman had raised
$420,429 through the same period.
Gillespie may have realized his campaign was a losing cause, one
expert said.
"If I had to guess, Gillespie's campaign was going nowhere fast ...
and so it was probably at the point where the campaign was not going to
be viable anymore," said Karen Kedrowski, chairwoman of the political
science department at Winthrop University. "What do you do in
circumstance like this? You circle the wagons."
As for what upside there might be for Gillespie to drop out of the
race, Sabato and Kedrowski said it's difficult to say.
"Maybe they've said if this doesn't work out for Norman, you get the
next shot," Sabato said.
Or, he said, the Republicans may have pledged to offer Gillespie
support in a future election.
Kedrowski speculated that Norman and others in the party may have
approached Gillespie and asked him to "think of the good of the party to
make Norman as well situated as possible to take on Spratt."
GOP leaders say Spratt, first elected in 1982, is vulnerable because
the district is becoming increasingly Republican.
But whether Norman can beat Spratt remains to be seen, observers say.
And, if some recent poll numbers are correct, defeating Spratt is likely
to be an uphill climb.
A recent poll conducted by the Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group shows
Spratt ahead by a wide margin with 5th District voters. A survey of more
than 400 likely voters showed 61 percent said they'd vote for Spratt
with 21 percent likely to vote for Norman. Eighteen percent of
respondents said they were undecided. Even in York County, where
Norman's strongest support is likely to be, Spratt leads Norman by more
than 40 points, the poll shows.
The poll was commissioned by Spratt.
The 14-county district includes York, Chester and Lancaster counties.
Jason Foster • 329-4066
jfoster@heraldonline.com
