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Frances: So far, yet so near

Florida likely target, but S.C. still at risk
BY JAMES SCOTT AND BO PETERSEN
Of The Post and Courier Staff

Lowcountry residents were urged Wednesday to stay alert for the possibility that Hurricane Frances could swing toward South Carolina, although forecasts Wednesday evening still showed the Category 4 monster heading toward Florida.

Although South Carolina could dodge a bullet, local residents were cautioned that shifting weather conditions could redirect the hurricane and its 140-mile-per-hour winds toward the Palmetto State.

"The storm is going to come over the Bahamas, which is bad for Florida, and just sit there until it decides where to go," said meteorologist Jennifer Pralgo of the National Hurricane Center. "We still want everybody from Florida up to the North Carolina-South Carolina border to keep watch."

Despite projections that South Carolina might be spared a direct hit, emergency officials across the Lowcountry continued preparing for the worst and urging residents to do the same.

Even a miss by a storm this size still could send torrents of rain and heavy winds to a region already strafed by Tropical Storm Gaston and its predecessor, Hurricane Charley.

"We are not out of the woods yet," said Will Folks, spokesman for Gov. Mark Sanford. "As long as any part of the state is in the forecast, we will continue to prepare for possible landfall."

Charleston Mayor Joe Riley cautioned residents against letting their guard down.

"No one should stop looking at the news or following this hurricane very, very closely," he said. "There is no certainty. This hurricane is so huge, it's very important that everyone remain alert."

Both a high pressure ridge over the Southeastern coast and a low pressure trough moving east showed signs of fading Wednesday. A ridge tends to push the storm away; a trough tends to draw it in.

"The steering is kind of weak right now," Pralgo said. She said Frances could make landfall in Florida and curve to the northeast as it moves into Georgia. "You guys would get some rain and wind from it. But it's a long way off to actually predict where it's going to go."

Hal Austin, a National Weather Service meteorologist in Charles-ton, said the odds that Frances would make landfall elsewhere were looking better but he remained cautious. For Charleston to get smacked, the hurricane would have to make "a pretty good jog to the right."

In the National Hurricane Center's 5 p.m. advisory, forecaster Lixion Avila reported, "I was tempted to shift the track a little bit to the north and east" because two of the more reliable of the computer models used to predict hurricane paths were calling for the ridge to weaken."

State officials stopped short of predicting whether a voluntary evacuation would be called today, but did stress the need for residents to study the state's new hurricane evacuation plan. That plan calls for reversing lanes on five of the state's main highways, including Interstate 26, and will shuffle other coastal residents out of town on secondary routes.

Local government officials also conducted emergency planning sessions Wednesday, including making sure key personnel are available to ride out the storm if necessary, as well as cleaning up debris from Gaston.

Riley said the city of Charleston, which has moved out of City Hall for renovations, would set up its emergency operation center if needed at Charleston Place Hotel.

Similar to other area governments, Riley said if the forecast for Frances looks worse today, the city will talk with employees about evacuating their families early so crews will be ready for work.

Local governments weren't the only ones monitoring the storm. Carolyn Martel, public affairs officer at the Ralph H. Johnson VA Medical Center, said staff are not evacuating patients but have stopped elective surgeries. If the storm appears like it's going to be a direct hit or cause significant damage, Martel said officials would start relocating patients via bus and airplane Friday to facilities in Georgia. Other area hospitals also said they're asking doctors to examine caseloads and discharge patients who normally would be going home on the weekend but are well enough to leave sooner.

Lowcountry military units from Beaufort to Charleston also were in a holding pattern late Wednesday, waiting to learn more about Frances' trajectory before deciding whether to order anyone to leave their bases.

"We're not ready to move at this point," said Coast Guard Capt. Michael Parks, commander of the cutter Gallatin and the former Charleston Naval Base. "We'll monitor the storm track and make a decision later."

While some preliminary weather reports indicate Florida will be the strike zone, officials warned residents not to relax just yet. "We fared pretty well with the last storm, Gaston, and we were able to avoid Charley. We know eventually we may get it bad," Dorchester County Administrator Jason Ward said. "There is not much you can do but pray about it."


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