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Survey shows lessons not learned after Katrina

Nearly a fourth of us would ride out a storm despite danger

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Anyone who's been through a hurricane evacuation in the Lowcountry was not surprised to see the results of a recent Harvard School of Public Health survey.

Nearly one in four people in Southern coastal states said they would ignore government hurricane evacuation orders.

Miles-long lines of vehicles clogged roads as we evacuated for Hurricane Floyd in September 1999, but the next day, New York City Pizza on Pope Avenue was packed with people who'd gone nowhere despite the dire warnings.

In the Harvard survey, the most common reasons respondents gave for not evacuating were confidence that their home is well-built, belief that roads would be too crowded and concern that evacuating would be dangerous, according to a news release summarizing the study.

"Public officials have to realize a substantial group of people are going to remain and be very dependent on rescue efforts after a storm hits," Robert Blendon, the Harvard health policy professor who directed the survey, said in a news release.

All of the participants were 18 and older and lived in counties within 50 miles of the coastline in the states of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina. The telephone survey, of 2,029 people, was conducted from July 5 to July 11.

When asked if they would evacuate if government officials said a major hurricane was going to hit in the next few days, 67 percent said they would, 24 percent said they would not and the rest said they didn't know or it would depend on the circumstances.

If it turned out they later needed rescuing, 75 percent of those who would or might stay voiced confidence they would be saved. But that leaves 25 percent of the respondents who would not count on a rescue.

Other findings:

• Nearly 60 percent said their level of preparation for a hurricane is about the same as it was a year ago. Seeing Katrina's devastation apparently made little difference.

• Homeowners, whites and long-term residents were the groups most likely to try to ride out a major hurricane.

• About 60 percent said it was likely their home would be flooded or wind-damaged in a big storm. But about 24 percent said they do not have homeowner's or renter's insurance.

• Only 12 percent of potential evacuees say they would go to a shelter.

• Of those who said they would evacuate, 91 percent said they would go by car, and 57 percent said they would flee 100 miles or more. About 77 percent said they have a place to take their pet.

• As for preparations, 40 percent do not have $300 in cash ready to take with them if they need to evacuate. Nearly one in three

(29 percent) do not have enough drinking water for each family member for three days if they are unable to leave. Of those taking prescription drugs, 37 percent do not have a three-week supply in case of an emergency. Nearly one in four (23 percent) do not have a first-aid kit in the house.

What to make of all this? We're more fatalistic than is probably good for us, counting on our luck to hold out and a storm to miss us. Government officials also should be prepared for many people to stick it out despite the chilling scenes from Katrina, Rita and other major storms.

With Tropical Storm Chris churning in the Caribbean on Tuesday as we head into the real storm season, we need to do better than this survey suggests we will. We can do better.