U.S. Rep. Richard Gephardt, once dismissed as old news, is
increasingly being seen as a sleeper in the contest for the
Democratic presidential nomination.
It’s not far-fetched. Take a look at the primary calendar. If the
stars line up right for him, he could well be on his way to the
party’s nomination by mid-March.
First up is Iowa, where the 62-year-old Missouri congressman has
a strong organization. Caucus balloting starts Jan. 19. Polls show
Gephardt and former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean locked in a virtual
tie. Gephardt needs to win Iowa.
Next comes New Hampshire, which votes in the nation’s first
primary Jan 27. Dean enjoys a huge lead over the rest of the field.
Gephardt is in sixth place.
Enter South Carolina, site of the first Southern primary Feb. 3.
This will be the make-or-break state for most of the nine
candidates. Gephardt is in a virtual tie for first place. Nearly
half of the vote will be African-American. Gephardt has the
endorsement of U.S. Rep. Jim Clyburn, the state’s dominant black
politician, and the backing of the state’s black mayors.
Four days later, the voting moves to Michigan, where Gephardt
enjoys long-standing ties to labor. His opposition to free trade
agreements has endeared him to industrial union members who blame
current trade policies for the export of American jobs abroad.
Gephardt also has a vast political network that includes dozens
of contacts in key primary states.
If Gephardt wins Iowa and Dean carries New Hampshire, South
Carolina and its more moderate-to-conservative voters will be called
upon to settle the race. Gephardt seems best positioned to take
advantage of the situation.
Unlike Dean, who appeals to the liberal elitists in the
Democratic Party, Gephardt has managed to stake out a more
middle-of-the-road course. He has consistently supported the Iraq
war, voted for the $87 billion to help rebuild Iraq, and offered a
health care plan. He also hails from the Midwest, where many
Republicans believe the presidential election will be decided.
Gephardt is a much different candidate from the one who dropped
out of the presidential race in 1988 after winning Iowa. He ran out
of money. That mistake will not be repeated, he vows.
The 2004 Gephardt is much improved as a candidate. He is more
relaxed and actually seems to enjoy campaigning.
Gephardt once could put an audience to sleep within the opening
moments of a speech. Today, he is a much more dynamic speaker. He is
passionate.
Gephardt also has learned to laugh at himself. His sense of humor
helps get him through the day.
He connects with audiences as he tells personal stories about
himself and his family. He talks about who he is and where he comes
from.
He notes that he has been married to the same woman for 37 years.
He speaks about how his son survived cancer. He says they would not
have been able to care for him if they had not had health
insurance.
He talks about how his mom and dad struggled to save for his
college education, relying on church scholarships and government
programs.
Audiences love it. They can feel his pain.
Among the nine candidates, Gephardt has the most experience. He
knows government and how it works. He has served in the House for 27
years, eight of them as House Democratic leader. He is a seasoned
legislator.
It would be a serious mistake to write off Gephardt as a
has-been. He is the type of candidate who can sneak up on you and
before you know it, move into the lead.