Spratt, Sanford lead in Clemson poll

S.C. voters' approval of Bush's performance drops to `crisis' level

HENRY EICHEL

Special to the Observer

Republican Gov. Mark Sanford and Democratic U.S. Rep. John Spratt each hold comfortable leads in their respective re-election bids, according to a poll released last week by Clemson University.

Also, the proposed state constitutional amendment defining marriage as between one man and one woman is sure to pass, the poll shows.

The poll also indicated that while President Bush's approval ratings in South Carolina remain higher than in most of the rest of the country, S.C. voters now are almost evenly split on whether he is doing a good job.

In addition, voters are more optimistic about the course the state is on than they are about events nationally.

"They're obviously satisfied with South Carolina, and I think that explains Sanford's popularity," said Clemson political science professor David Woodard, who conducted the poll with professor Bruce Ransom.

National issues are another story, however, Woodard said. "Bush's approval is down to 47 percent. In this state, that's a crisis." The current national approval rating for the president is about 40 percent.

The poll surveyed 500 registered voters who had cast ballots in the 2002 election and who said they intend to vote Nov. 7. The error margin was plus or minus 4 percentage points. The telephone survey was taken Oct. 17-25.

The poll showed Spratt leading his Republican opponent, Ralph Norman, by 61 percent to 28 percent among voters in the 5th Congressional District, with 11 percent undecided. But Woodard said those numbers aren't as reliable as the statewide figures because only 100 5th District voters were surveyed.

"We said going in that if (the difference between the two candidates) was down in the teens, we would keep sampling up there," Norman said. "But when we saw this vast disparity, we said that it looks like Spratt's going to win, so we quit."

Norman's campaign manager, Nathan Hollifield, said, "This poll clearly doesn't have a representative sample of the 5th Congressional District reliable enough to give the public an accurate account. We are confidant that our voters are going to turn out en masse and that we will win this election."

Spratt's campaign manager, Adam Harris, said he expects the final result to be closer than the Clemson poll indicated.

A Survey USA poll earlier this month showed Spratt ahead of Norman by 56 percent to 42 percent. Against his last three Republican opponents, Spratt's winning margins were 58 percent, 59 percent and 63 percent.

Although Republicans entered 2006 with high hopes for Norman, Woodard said, "I just think that the mood for the GOP nationally and with the president has been so bad, it's just depressed the Republican Party and affected the enthusiasm of the party's base."

Decision 2006

Clemson Poll Results

Among the findings:

• Republican Gov. Mark Sanford led Democratic challenger Tommy Moore by 58 percent to 31 percent, with 11 percent undecided.

• Democratic U.S. Rep. John Spratt led his Republican opponent, Ralph Norman, by 61 percent to 28 percent among voters in the 5th Congressional District, with 11 percent undecided.

• Asked to rate President Bush's performance, 47 percent approved while 46 percent disapproved. The rest were undecided.

• By a 57 percent to 28 percent margin, voters said the nation is on the wrong track. But when asked about South Carolina, 44 percent said the state is on the right track, and 41 percent said the wrong track.

• Voters were overwhelmingly in favor of the marriage amendment, with 78 percent voicing approval to only 18 percent opposed. The rest were undecided.