Posted on Sat, Sep. 11, 2004


South Carolina storm season most active in decades


Associated Press

First Hurricane Charley crashed ashore near McClellanville last month with its 85 mph winds. Two weeks later, Tropical Storm Gaston made landfall just a few miles away with near-hurricane force winds and torrential rains.

It was the first time in almost a half century that two tropical systems made landfall on the South Carolina coast during the same storm season, according to an Associated Press analysis of historical storm tracks dating back 150 years.

But those storms weren't the only brushes with tropical weather in South Carolina this year.

Although the center of circulation didn't track into the state, the remnants of Hurricane Frances moved through Georgia and spawned tornadoes and dumped torrential rains on South Carolina.

Bonnie also soaked the state while, the first storm of the season, Alex, made a feint toward South Carolina before sliding across the Outer Banks of North Carolina.

It has been, in short, a stormy season in South Carolina with a possible threat from Hurricane Ivan just over the horizon.

"It has been one right after the other right after the other," said Joe Farmer, a spokesman for the state Emergency Management Division. "There have been years where we have had a lot of storms during the season but not so close together. We have not had a lot of time to breathe."

The experts say South Carolinians might expect more of the same in coming years as the Atlantic basin experiences a period of increased hurricane activity.

"For the whole eastern United States, the Atlantic basin was quite active during the first half of the 1900s," said Cary Mock, a geographer at the University of South Carolina. "An inactive period followed that to 1990. During that inactive period you had all that coastal development."

While South Carolinians wonder when the relentless storm season may ease up, it's not unusual in a historic context.

"It's just been the unusual amount of activity this year that is making the headlines," said Gerald Mohler, a meteorologist with AccuWeather. "It has been pretty much the same areas getting threatened and that kind of adds to the overall chatter and the press that these things get."

Charley and Gaston were the first two named storms to make landfall on the South Carolina coast in the same season since 1959, when Tropical Storm Cindy and Hurricane Gracie came ashore.

Charley was the first hurricane to make landfall in the state since Hurricane Hugo smashed into the coast north of Charleston with 135 mph winds 15 years ago. Charley had devastated southwestern Florida before crossing the peninsula and re-emerging in the Atlantic.

No hurricanes made landfall in South Carolina during the 1990s, although six tropical systems moved through the state over land after making landfall in Florida or on the Gulf Coast.

Hurricane Floyd also made landfall in North Carolina in 1999, causing damage in the northeastern corner of South Carolina.

Past tracks show storms that make landfall in Florida or along the Gulf Coast and then track into the state over land are far more frequent. During the past 50 years, the storm tracks show that 21 named storms came into the state through the back door compared with 10 which that struck the coast.

Mock said the 40- to 60-year-cycles of hurricane activity are tied in part to fluctuations in sea surface temperatures in the tropics.

"We are confident we are entering a more active cycle," he said. "We can expect more years like this, in an overall sense, during the next 40 years or so."

Historically, South Carolina can expect a hurricane to make landfall on the coast about every eight years and a tropical storm to make landfall every 2 1/2 years, Mock said.

One of the busiest hurricane seasons in South Carolina was 1893, during a decade in which four hurricanes smashed into the South Carolina coast.

That year alone, two hurricanes made landfall - one south of Beaufort and the other near Charleston. The Beaufort storm, with winds estimated at more than 120 mph, claimed an estimated 2,000 lives.

During that season, two tropical storms also tracked into the state after making landfall on the Gulf Coast. In all, that storm season saw five hurricanes strike the United States from New York City to New Orleans.

Mock said while two systems hitting the coast in the same season is not unprecedented, people should be aware this is a cycle of increased hurricane activity.

"It's something we need to be concerned about," he said.





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