No change foreseen in legislative makeup

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Less than 30 percent of the 170 legislative seats, or 49 of 170, are being contested, according to an analysis of Democratic and Republican party filing reports by The Greenville News.

Most Greenville legislators are home free, having neither primary nor general election opposition.

Luke Byars, executive director of the state Republican Party, attributed the limited challenges to the GOP's solid control of both chambers and its attraction to the conservative nature of much of the state's electorate.

"There are some districts that obviously are going to take more money and more organization to go after, and that takes much more commitment from a candidate. It's hard to take on an incumbent," something Byars said holds true for both parties.

"There's very little chance for the Democrats to win back the House this time or the Senate," said Scott Huffmon, a political scientist at Winthrop University. "And it's not going to change in the immediate future."

Few toss-ups

With most districts noncompetitive and no scandals or high-profile issues stirring voters, there is little chance of significant change, Huffmon said.

Democrats are focusing on a handful of House and Senate districts, but not enough to restore them to the majorities they lost in 1994 and 2000, respectively.

But state Rep. James Smith of Columbia, the Democratic House leader, sees "a good chance" to win back the Senate, based on strong candidate recruiting, a still shaky state economy and what he said was rising concern over the Bush administration's handling of the war in Iraq.

"That's the more likely of the two chambers for us," he said.

Nearly everything would have to go right for Democrats for them to win back the Senate.

Uphill fight

With a 27-19 GOP edge there, they need a net gain of four seats just to win an even 23-23 split, and only a handful of the 23 contested seats are competitive.

Joe Erwin of Greenville, the state Democratic chairman, has said Democrats must concentrate on clawing their way back over several election cycles to be within striking distance.

Some changes will come from retirements and the possibility of a rare primary or general election upset.

In the Senate, whose members run every four years, 23 of the 46 seats have candidates from both major parties.

For the Nov. 2 general election, there will be 14 GOP Senate primaries, and nine Democratic-held districts will have head-to-head contests.

Few challenges

Only 26 of 124 House districts are being contested. Of those, 14 have Republican incumbents or retiring GOP members and 12 have Democrats.

Republicans have the edge in the House, 75-49.

Democrats will mount 13 House primaries, five of them involving incumbents. There will be 13 Republican House primaries with seven incumbents facing challenges.

In the 46-seat Senate, there will be 10 Democratic primaries with eight incumbents involved and 10 GOP primaries in which four incumbents are being challenged.

Top Republican targets in November are Democratic Sens. Glenn Reese of Boiling Springs and Phil Leventis of Sumter.

Steve Parker is challenging Reese, one of the last elected Democrats in Spartanburg County.

Midlands tests

Democrats are hoping to pick up two Columbia seats, those of retiring Sens. Warren Giese — the former University of South Carolina football coach — and John Courson, possibly vulnerable in a district nearly evenly divided between the parties.

They are running state Rep. Joel Lourie for the Giese seat, but Republicans are countering with the winner of a primary between the incumbent's son, Barney, the current Richland-Kershaw solicitor, and Ken Wingate, a 2002 GOP gubernatorial primary candidate.

Sen. Billy O'Dell of Anderson, who bolted to the Republican Party late last year, is another Democratic target. He is opposed by Jay West, an Erskine College development official who has been campaigning for some time.

Republican Sen. Danny Verdin of Laurens faces a rematch with Democrat Jim Bryan, whom he ousted in a tough 2000 contest. The district includes Laurens County and part of southern Greenville County.

Upstate battles

In the Upstate, there are Republican and Democratic primaries in the Anderson County Senate District 3 seat of retiring Republican Bob Waldrep.

Chuck Allen and Kevin Bryant are in the GOP primary, and Democrats Ed Allgood and Mike Mullinax will meet in their party's June 8 primary.

Spartanburg Republican Sen. John Hawkins has a primary fight with Lee Bright, while Democrat Leonardo Ortiz awaits the outcome.

Two Greenville lawmakers have challenges.

Debra Gammons, assistant Greenville city attorney, filed against Democratic Sen. Ralph Anderson in District 7. There is no Republican opponent.

Rep. Dwight Loftis, R-Greenville, has no primary opposition but will face Democrat Luanne Taylor on Nov. 2.

Dan Hoover covers politics and can be reached at 298-4883.