Right kind of
spending cap could help, but politicians would hate
it
By CINDI ROSS SCOPPE Associate Editor
SO NOW the House is going along with Gov. Mark Sanford’s plan to
put an arbitrary cap on government spending, right?
Well, not exactly. Mr. Sanford’s cap, complete with its tax
rebates, is actually closer to education advocate Tom Truitt’s idea
of spending new state revenue building and repairing schools in poor
districts than to the Ways and Means Committee budget.
To see why, you have to understand more than the campaign
commercial version of the cap.
Early on, Mr. Sanford’s cap was all about getting what he
considered a bloated government in check; and his spokesman still
talks that way. Never mind that any objective analysis shows South
Carolinians spend much less of our money in state and local taxes
than people in most states. If government is bad, it doesn’t matter
how small it is; it must be smaller.
But lately, the governor is giving an actual reason to limit
spending increases. “Leave aside any philosophy” and look at things
“from the standpoint of sustainability,” Mr. Sanford told me
recently. “There’s a regular peak and valley” in the economy, and
thus in tax revenues.
Yet when revenue increases, the Legislature rushes to create new
programs, assuming revenue will continue to grow rapidly. “We know
these increases are not sustainable,” the governor said.
Well, of course they’re not. And of course a spending cap would
curtail the boom-and-bust cycles like the one we just spent the past
decade in; so would shutting down government entirely. What makes
the cap idea borderline reasonable is a highly technical but
essential detail that few people seem to be picking up on: Mr.
Sanford doesn’t actually propose to limit spending; he proposes to
limit recurring spending.
His plan to send out money above the cap as rebate checks was
“just simply about creating a constituency for holding the line,” he
told me. “You could hold it all for next year and put it all into
highway funds” instead, he said.
Or any other one-time expense. Say, school buses. Or deferred
maintenance on state buildings. Or new school buildings in poor
districts that can’t afford to replace them. Fact is, our
infrastructure backlog is so thick that we could use every penny in
revenue growth for years to come and barely make a dent in it.
This is what Mr. Sanford’s plan has in common with Mr.
Truitt’s.
Where it differs from Ways and Means is in the committee’s plan
to use money above the cap to make up the shortfall in the House tax
swap plan. Unlike the governor’s rebate or the school building plan,
that’s a recurring expense: It must be funded every year.
Worse, the House’s desire to look like it’s abiding by the
governor’s cap could lead to an even more unstable situation. The
House plan keeps new recurring spending under a cap by using
one-time money to pay for recurring programs.
So what to do?
The House’s approach sets us up for future crisis cuts.
And the governor uses overkill to eliminate boom-and-bust
spending because his real goal is to prevent the state from
providing any more services than it already does.
That, it must be said, is an awful idea, because the state
clearly is not doing everything we need to do: We’re not providing
an adequate education for all our kids. We don’t have enough
troopers on the roads or guards in the prisons. We aren’t providing
adequate care for the mentally and physically disabled people who
can’t afford that care themselves. (Perhaps we could do all that if
we’d stop doing all the things we don’t need to do, or start doing
the things we must do more efficiently. But the Legislature is not
going to let us find out, so that is a moot point.)
What to do is reject the governor’s real goal, reject the House’s
shell game and modify the cap so it actually addresses the real
problem Mr. Sanford claims he wants to address.
One problem with spending caps is that they make it impossible to
make a big new EIA-style investment, by essentially prohibiting tax
increases. Oh, the Legislature could raise the sales tax, as it did
with EIA, or the cigarette tax or any other tax. But it could only
spend the money on one-time purchases. We could buy schools but no
new teachers, prisons but no more guards, buses but no drivers.
So if you want to turn the cap into a fiscal responsibility tool
— which is something we clearly lack in this state — you would add a
bypass: Create all the new programs you want — as long as you raise
taxes to create a stable, recurring revenue source to pay for that
new spending.
There’s little chance the Legislature will raise taxes, but that
makes it all the more ridiculous that lawmakers would feel the need
to lock out the possibility.
Assuming you really wanted to promote stable, responsible
budgeting, the remaining detail to work out is how to calculate a
cap.
Mr. Sanford suggests inflation plus population growth, which
serves his goal but is overkill for the actual problem. A better
idea is to tie spending to revenue growth in recent years.
Obviously, the resulting “cap” wouldn’t suit Mr. Sanford or
others who think like him; the Legislature and others probably won’t
like it either, because they want to spend new revenue on new
programs, even if it’s one-time money.
But smart public policy usually gives all sides some of what they
want. That’s intolerable to those on the extremes, but it works well
for most of the rest of us.
Ms. Scoppe can be reached at cscoppe@thestate.com or at
(803)
771-8571. |