Democrats try to reach state's voters tonight

Debate executive producer Mark Lukasiewicz, center, goes over what the candidates can expect with their representatives. Staff/Owen Riley Jr. e-mail this story More details Location: Peace Center for the Performing Arts Concert Hall, 300 S. Main St. Television: WYFF News and MSNBC, 7 to 8:30 p.m. Tickets distributed: 2,000-plus. No more available. Doors open: 4:45 p.m. Be in your seat by: 5 p.m. Don't bring: Cameras, cell phones, campaign materials, weapons and large bags. None will be allowed through security checkpoints. In addition to West Court Street, which is closed until 11 p.m. tonight, Greenville police will close Broad Street beside the Peace Center between South Main and River streets from 3:30 p.m. to 11 p.m. and may close the southbound lane of South Main Street from Camperdown to Broad the same period for the unloading of equipment. Related Related stories: • Local voters still in listening mode Photo gallery • View a gallery of images from Thursday's pre-debate activities  Complete coverage Back Democrats try to reach state's voters tonight Tonight's South Carolina Democratic presidential primary debate in Greenville could reshape Tuesday's voting if front-runners stumble and also-rans catch fire.   Related:   Local voters still in listening mode Clyburn to endorse Kerry U.S. Rep. Jim Clyburn's endorsement had been sought by all the candidates for a primary in which a projected 40 percent to 50 percent of the voters will be black. Brokaw holds candidates to their word Moderator wants depth in debate   Online extra:   Transcript of the interview   Photo gallery:   NBC anchor broadcasts from the Peace Center Erwin 'doggedly' sought local debate Democratic Party chairman negotiated for high-profile event Debate worth more than money Greenville hopes to benefit from extensive press exposure Belton songbird to open debate Loretta Holloway to sing in her native state Black voter turnout to make a difference Young black voters less wed to party Students of all ages expect to tune in debate Some of them won't be able to cast a ballot until November. For others, voting is still several presidential elections away.   Online extra:   Tips on turning Thursday night's debate into a learning tool Ranks of Hispanic voters swelling As a group, Hispanics are up for grabs in November, and both parties in South Carolina are actively pursuing them. City rolling out debate red carpet Months of exacting planning culminates tonight in 90 minutes of television time and in hundreds of stories filed by some 350 members of the press from all over the country. Simply put, Greenville leaders want Greenville to shine. Three-ring media circus descends on Greenville They're coming from hundreds of media outlets from Charleston to Seattle and even include dozens of foreign reporters.   Photo gallery:   NBC anchor broadcasts from the Peace Center   Photo gallery:   View a gallery of images of the preparations

Will it be caution or caution thrown to the winds?

"The leading candidates have to not lose or say something stupid that will hurt them," said Phil Noble, chairman of the state chapter of the Democratic Leadership Council.

Based on campaign themes, previous statements, demographics and analysts' assessments, candidates are almost certain to appeal to African-American voters who may provide 40 percent to 50 percent of Tuesday's turnout. They also are likely to hammer the Bush administration on massive job losses in South Carolina and tout their plans for more affordable health care, new education initiatives and higher taxes.

"The candidate who makes the appeal that resonates with black voters, and at the same time is no less appealing to moderate whites, is going to be the successful one," said Bruce Ransom, a political scientist at Clemson University's Strom Thurmond Institute.

If the sharp reversal of fortunes in the Jan. 19 Iowa caucuses taught them anything, the top-tier candidates won't be throwing mudballs. That may not be the case for those who have nothing more to lose after South Carolina.

"Those trailing badly will try and do something to ignite a fire and try to turn things around," Noble said. "There will likely be political fireworks and someone is sure to get burned but it's hard to tell who it will be."

The 90-minute nationally televised debate will air as Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry surges after victories in Iowa and New Hampshire that left his six surviving competitors seriously wounded and in need of a momentum-stopping victory somewhere, anywhere.

There's a certain incongruity to national Democrats debating amid convention-like hoopla in the Republican heartland of a GOP-dominated state that their presidential nominees avoid and where the local party must often scrounge for candidates for Congress.

In Greenville, the driving force in the 4th Congressional District, Democrats mount only token, if any, opposition to Republican incumbents. Republicans have elected four of the past five governors and Democrats carried the state in only one presidential election in 44 years, in 1976 with Georgia's Jimmy Carter.

In New Hampshire's wake, it may be up to North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, a Seneca native who has made the state of his birth his last stand, the place where he must win.

"Kerry doesn't have to win the debate, Edwards does, and clearly demonstrate he's more than just a favorite-son candidate," said Dick Harpootlian, former state Democratic Party chairman.

"Edwards has to show that he's ready for prime time, that he can win," he said. "Iowa gave him a bounce; he got nothing out of New Hampshire, except maybe the realization that he's not quite there yet. If he doesn't win South Carolina (on Tuesday), he's done."

The candidates

With Edwards, retired Army Gen. Wesley Clark has made the ability to win in the South a hallmark of his campaign. Vermont Gov. Howard Dean was once the front-runner who lost traction in a negative campaign in Iowa and was dogged by questions in New Hampshire following his performance at a caucus night speech in Iowa.

U.S. Rep. Dennis Kucinich of Ohio is the darling of the party's anti-war, far-left wing.

Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman is the field's values-centered moderate. He has been unable to break into double digits so far amid political actuarial tables suggesting a campaign lifespan now measured in days.

Al Sharpton, a New York civil rights advocate and the only remaining African-American candidate entered the campaign with no chance of winning the nomination or a state, but he has been building a following for later use as his ticket to the council table when issues are prioritized.

Edwards' fourth-place finish in New Hampshire and Kerry's victory, after trailing Dean by 30 points two weeks ago, makes the South Carolina debate even more important, Harpootlian said.

The fragility of Edwards' candidacy was on display Wednesday with new questions about him as a possible running mate.

"No, no. Final. I don't want to be vice president. I'm running for president," he said on NBC's Today show Wednesday morning.

"Kerry and Edwards, those are the only two people in the debate who matter," Harpootlian said. "The others are clutter."

For Edwards, the stakes are higher in South Carolina, where he's said he must win, than in Iowa and New Hampshire, where he played the expectations game of seeking "good" showings.

"Not to lose, or raise any questions, not to have any fumbles, maintain what's he accomplished here," should be his debate goals," Ransom said.

'His to lose'

"In a sense, it's his to lose. He doesn't want to allow those who are supporting him or inclined to support him to start having doubts and let it come from his performance in the debate," Ransom said. "Unlike Dean, he can't get to the finish line and drop the ball."

John Moylan, Edwards' state campaign chairman, said his candidate "needs to keep doing what he's been doing. When he's in front of an audience, he connects with people and he needs to connect again."

Ransom said Kerry has to present himself in a way to appeal to South Carolinians. "He has to make the appeal because there are questions about whether he's writing off the state and just try to coast and concentrate" on other states.

Debate performance is important, analysts said, because there is still a substantial undecided bloc of voters up for grabs.

The outcome in New Hampshire was important, especially to Democrats for whom electability is the key issue, said Jack Bass of the College of Charleston.

Danielle Vinson, a Furman University professor who specializes in the presidency, politics and the media, expects some of the candidates to go after Kerry and, probably, Edwards and Clark, trying to peel away support purely from regional affinity.

"We'll hear a lot about job creation and what the candidates would do for military personnel and veterans," she said. "Clearly the jobs issue is on the minds of South Carolina voters, though it may not be as closely tied to trade as it would have been with (Missouri Rep. Dick) Gephardt in the race.

"Kerry has to say that we continue to have discussions about who can win in the South, who can win in the West, who can win in the East, but this is one country. It's the Republicans who continue to divide us into regions," she said.

Harpootlian disagreed, saying Kerry "has to take this (issue) about whether he's going to play in the South or not play in the South, whether you have to have a southerner on the ticket or not, and point out it's not what divides us that makes us a great country, but what we have in common. That's what he has to speak to and not pander to Southern sensibilities. If he does that, he'll prevail."

— Dan Hoover covers politics and can be reached at 298-4883.