The uncertainty over war with Iraq might have ended last week, but businesses now are left uncertain over how that military action will affect Grand Strand tourism.

Predictions range from the worst - the area taking an immediate and prolonged hit - to optimistic opinions that the area will benefit by giving travelers an affordable vacation option close to home.

Tourism nationwide has struggled to overcome the hardships created after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, with travel still not reaching pre-attack levels. A war could prolong that recovery, especially if another attack occurs on U.S. soil or the war doesn't end in the short time many expect.

But American travelers have adjusted since those attacks, and the state's top industry should weather this storm without dramatic declines, said Chad Prosser, director-designate of the S.C. Parks, Recreation and Tourism department.

"We're cautiously optimistic about the near term," he said Thursday. "The American people and the traveling public are becoming more accustomed to the situation we have in the world."

But lingering uncertainty about the war in recent weeks, combined with the lagging economy and rising gas prices, already had affected reservations and business at some hotels.

Talk of a war caused reservations at Patricia Resorts, which has about 1,600 rooms along the Grand Strand, to drop in recent weeks, said Vice President Frans Mustert.

"There is no question in my mind that it is affecting business," he said. "Calls have slowed down dramatically. People are postponing calling and making commitments."

Other properties are boosting advertising to try to keep steady traffic amid the war, economy and high gas prices. The Breakers Resorts has sent special mailings to past customers and participated in more cooperative advertising opportunities this year.

"We are working harder," said general manager Vernon Brake. "The bookings just haven't been coming through like they should; the phones aren't ringing like they should be. Everybody's just concerned."

Some properties are keeping the same level of advertising but focusing it within a tight drive market of 150 miles to 250 miles.

The effects of war

Most Grand Strand theaters and hotels aren't increasing security because of the war, unlike Disney World, which is considered a potential target of terrorists.

The Grand Strand offers an alternative to vacationers leery of flying, experts say.

"Most people realize that within the U.S. travel destinations, Myrtle Beach isn't something that would be recognized on the international radar," said Ferrell Schmidt, general manager of the Carnival Motor Inn. "The gas prices and economy in general are probably having as big an effect on travel right now."

The Grand Strand traditionally fares well during wars and economic downturns, and some leaders say they expect the same this time. Most haven't started special advertising campaigns, adjusted rates or changed their operating procedures because of war.

"Even in bad times, people want to take a vacation," said Frank Hefner, an economist at the College of Charleston. "I think we will do all right."

The Grand Strand's affordability, drive-to reputation and likeliness of not being a terrorist target will keep vacationers coming, experts say.

"Most people want to get it off their minds," said Kay Harris of The Palace Theater. "You can't live in fear all the time."

Gloom and doom?

Many say the sooner the war is over, the better. They say they don't want to think about the effect a long war stretching into the summer might have.

"The faster and swifter we accomplish our objective there the better," said Dennis Wade, chairman of the Myrtle Beach Area Chamber of Commerce. "But even if people still have a level of concern, a getaway with the family carries a lot of weight, and they don't want to sacrifice that."

Despite vacationers' hesitancy, some hotels have benefited from the talk of a war. At the Days Inn on the Ocean, reservations have increased in the past two weeks, with some of those calls coming from families in military communities.

Anticipating a war that would separate them, they're looking to Myrtle Beach for a quick trip before that gears up. Recent weekends have sold out, and weekday occupancy has hit 80 percent, despite a double whammy of war and weather, said owner Jay Smith.

"[Business] had been flat, but suddenly I've started to inch ahead," he said. "That's in the face of two negatives. Nobody that I've talked to is gloom and doom about our industry this year."

Many are hoping the Grand Strand's family feel will appeal to vacationers who are refocusing on family.

"There's a renewed sense of family and what's important, and a vacation is a part of that," said Kathi Grace of Myrtle Beach National Co., which owns lodging properties and golf courses. "They're coming. They just didn't plan their trip [as early]."

Businesses that are down so far this year are optimistic the last-minute planners will boost traffic as the summer season approaches. That will happen, they say, as long as the war ends quickly.

"I still believe that the summer vacation, the family vacation, we will still see those people come to the beach," Wade said. "If people already have plans, they will continue to travel."

Kathi Grace

Myrtle Beach National Co.