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After election, Senate may become more Sanford-friendly

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Published Monday, June 28th, 2004

If the recent state runoff elections reveal anything, it's that the power of incumbency may not be as strong as in the past.

In three high-profile Republican legislative runoffs, incumbents lost:

In a testy Charleston County Senate race, former State Rep. Chip Campsen beat Sen. John Kuhn by a margin of 57 percent to 43 percent.

In Dorchester County, long-time Sen. Bill Branton got 1,045 votes less than County Council Chairman Randy Scott to lose by a 2-1 margin.

In Lexington County, the House's longest-term member, Rep. Larry Koon, lost by 504 votes (2,929 to 2,426) to newcomer Nikki Haley.

On June 8, another well-known in-cumbent, House Majority Leader Rick Quinn of Columbia, lost to newcomer Nathan Ballentine. On the same day, six-term Rep. Teddy Trotter of Pickens also lost to a newcomer.

But it may be too soon to draw a conclusion that being an incumbent could spell political doom. Because dozens of House and Senate incumbents face no challengers in the November elections, the chambers will look much the same next year and continue to be dominated by Republicans.

Veteran political observer Bill Moore of the College of Charleston said incumbents who lost probably did so because of local dynamics more than any sweeping trend.

"Each legislative race had its own peculiar characteristics which explain why incumbents got defeated," Moore said.

Kuhn, for example, was "his own worst enemy," Moore said, because of the way he bucked the Republican leadership and put his foot in his mouth too often. A well-publicized shouting match with First Lady Jenny Sanford over campaign contributions may have been the straw that broke the camel's back with voters.

Scott's popularity -- and his public statements that he'd work with Gov. Mark Sanford -- appear to have swayed voters to pick him over Branton.

In Lexington County, Koon sent signals he wouldn't run for a 16th two-year term. But at the last minute, he decided to run, which apparently didn't sit well with voters.

And Quinn, often immersed in state politics and policy, appeared to forget all politics is local, as former U.S. House Speaker Tip O'Neill often reminded.

Perhaps the most interesting dynamic to be generated from the runoff results is how it will affect the makeup of the Senate. With Campsen and Scott, Sanford will get stronger allies than with Kuhn and Branton.

"You could probably argue that Sanford is getting a marginally stronger position by getting two state Senate seats that are close to him or ran on platforms to help him," said political science professor Neal Thigpen of Francis Marion University.

Senate President pro tem Glenn McConnell, R-Charleston, agreed.

"It does make the Senate more Sanford-friendly."

But while the Senate may become a little more sympathetic to the Sanford agenda, Moore reminds that Sanford hasn't achieved much legislatively in the past two years.

"He has 75 percent to 80 percent approval with the general public, and probably has a 20 percent approval with the legislature," he said.

Recalling the stunt earlier this month of bringing two pigs into the Statehouse, Moore said, "Governors have to work with General Assemblies."

Sanford needs to remember that.

Andy Brack is editor and publisher of Statehousereport.com; .

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