SUMTER — Vermont’s Green Mountain Boys could be flying to the rescue of Shaw Air Force Base.

The Vermont Air National Guard has an F-16 fighter unit at the Sumter base, ready to intercept a terrorist attack against U.S. cities. Its presence underlines the need to keep Shaw open in the post-9/11 world, advocates say.

“The homeland defense mission is a strong mission at Shaw,” said retired Air Force Maj. Gen. Tom Olsen, who is spearheading Sumter’s efforts to spare Shaw from the Pentagon’s budget-cutting ax. “Shaw is well-positioned to cover the East and Southeast portion of the United States.”

Despite that, some say Shaw is the most vulnerable military installation in South Carolina heading into the 2005 round of base closings.

The Sumter base’s predicament was summed up by Gov. Mark Sanford while talking about efforts to protect S.C. bases. Shaw is “the spot with the brightest light on it,” he said.

That light will continue to glare at least until May 16, when the Defense Department recommends bases for closing.

Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld has suggested that bases in the United States could be trimmed about 25 percent, to 300. S.C. leaders take Rumsfeld’s remark to mean almost all bases are at risk of closing.

MONEY, JOBS AND HOMES

South Carolina is no stranger to base closings, losing installations at Myrtle Beach and Charleston in previous base-closing rounds.

What worries state and local officials is how closing Shaw would hurt Sumter, including a 1995 projection that joblessness could almost triple.

“I think we’d be impacted more than any other community in the state,” said Sumter mayor Joe McElveen, an Air Force veteran once stationed at Shaw. “We don’t have the immediate resources of a Charleston or Myrtle Beach,” where local economies rely on tourism.

A 1995 report predicted Sumter County joblessness — then 6 percent — would soar to 16 percent if Shaw were closed.

Today, joblessness is almost 11 percent in Sumter, where Shaw accounts for about 20 percent of the total personal income earned in the county.

Shaw’s influence on the Sumter economy is huge.

• Shaw’s annual economic impact on the Sumter community totals $1 billion.

• Shaw is the county’s No. 1 employer, accounting for nearly 13,000 jobs, directly or indirectly.

• Also, 60 percent of Shaw’s airmen live off base. If the base closes and they leave, the housing market would suffer depressed rents and prices, said USC research economist Donald Schunk.

STAYING OFF THE LIST

Worries about Shaw’s future stem from its showing in the 1995 base-closing round.

Shaw was not on that list, but it ranked in the middle of U.S. bases, touching off speculation that it would be a prime candidate for future closure.

While the 2005 base-closing list is still being pulled together by the Defense Department, Shaw already has made a “BRAC list” compiled by Carlton Meyer, editor of the Web site g2mil.com.

Meyer, who published his thoughts about which bases should be closed, included Shaw because it has excess capacity. Excluding the temporarily assigned Green Mountain Boys, the base currently is the home to only three Air Force F-16 squadrons.

The Air Force also has a motivation to cut costs. It needs to close bases to pay for new weapons, such as the F-22 fighter, which costs about $257 million per plane, Meyer said.

However, Meyer predicts Shaw could survive if the Air Force moves at least one F-16 squadron from overseas back to Sumter.

Supporters say the Green Mountain Boys’ mission shows Shaw has enough room for another unit and also enhances the base’s value to the nation’s defense.

The Sumter community has spent the past decade trying to sell Shaw to the Pentagon as a base that can take on more missions and personnel.

Shaw is home to the 20th Fighter Wing, and its planes have been in every major U.S. conflict since the base’s 1941 opening.

Most recently, Shaw’s fighters were deployed for the invasion of Iraq. At the war’s height, Shaw had about 1,300 airmen deployed.

Shaw crews continue to go to the Persian Gulf. By May, 400 to 500 Sumter-based airmen will be in the region.

In addition, the 9th Air Force, which commands all U.S. air forces in the Gulf region, is based at Shaw.

WASTE ‘NO TIME AND NO MONEY’

Time and money are two considerations weighing in Shaw’s favor, said Brig. Gen. George Patrick of Gov. Sanford’s Military Task Force.

Shaw pilots are within minutes of three training ranges.

Poinsett Bombing Range is just south of Shaw’s runways, allowing pilots to simulate attacks. The Gamecock and Bulldog flying ranges — large sections of airspace over the Pee Dee and northeast Georgia, where pilots train — also are nearby, Patrick said.

South Carolina’s location along the coast also gives pilots training space over the Atlantic that is out of the main flying lanes for airliners shuttling between Miami and New York, Patrick added.

Already, the Defense Department has said it will not give up training ranges. Thus, Bulldog, Gamecock and Poinsett will continue to be used after this year’s base closings.

Patrick contends moving Shaw’s fighters to another base — but still having them train at the Georgia and S.C. ranges — would make no sense. Flying from the new bases would cost the Air Force time and money, said Patrick, chief of the S.C. Air National Guard.

“Do you and I want to pay at today’s prices for the jet fuel required to drive from a base 400 or 500 miles away to get to training air space, as opposed to a base that’s 10 minutes away?” Patrick asked. “The advantage of flying tactical aircraft in South Carolina is that you waste almost no time and no money getting to the training.”

ROOM TO GROW

Supporters hope to turn one of Shaw’s weaknesses — its underutilization — into a strength — offering space to grow.

Since his election in 1982, U.S. Rep. John Spratt, D-York, has helped funnel about $88 million into Shaw to renovate and build more facilities.

The construction has included improved housing, a new wing headquarters, a dining room, an education center, even floodlights for servicing aircraft at night. An $8.5 million deployment center is under construction.

“Shaw’s an installation that could grow by 50 percent, and you would not have to spend anything on military construction,” Patrick said.

New or improved facilities do not necessarily ensure a base will escape closing, said Christopher Hellman, director of the Project on Military Spending Oversight. But they enhance a base’s stock if the Pentagon is looking for places to move planes and troops without having to pay for new facilities.

If base housing is being updated or new construction is under way, that’s a plus as well. The military wants to improve the quality of life for its troops so they will re-enlist, Hellman said.

For example, Shaw is planning to build about 1,000 housing units for military families through a public-private partnership.

“If your approach is to be a good neighbor and say to the military, ‘How can we better work with you?’ — then that’s going to have some resonance,” Hellman said.

Shaw’s other ace in the hole, Olsen says, is it is one of few bases with twin, parallel runways. By operating two side-by-side runways, Shaw can launch fighters twice as fast — a key factor in the post-9/11 world in which the military needs to respond quickly to threats like the terrorist attacks that struck the World Trade Center and the Pentagon.

‘IT’S MAGICAL’

Another advantage, local leaders hope, is that a number of the nation’s senior Air Force leaders once were stationed at Shaw.

For example, Air Force chief Gen. John Jumper and his deputy, Gen. Michael Moseley, both are former 9th Air Force commanders.

Having friends in high places helps Sumter in getting its message through to the Air Force leadership, Olsen said.

Col. Phil Ruhlman, the base’s current commander, says the relationship between Shaw and Sumter is renowned in the Air Force.

Ruhlman credits Sumter’s size, its Southern hospitality and its military tradition with helping the Air Force feel at home. He believes the feeling is mutual, noting that up to 50,000 are expected to attend the Shawfest air show on April 23.

“I think we have a good relationship,” Ruhlman said. “If you want to say it’s magical, well it is.”

Mayor McElveen, who also is honorary base commander, says any obituaries for Shaw are premature.

“Everything we hear is pretty positive.”

Reach Crumbo at (803) 771-8503 or ccrumbo@thestate.com.