Parties have separate stake in Senate race

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The outcome could be a measure of the state Democratic Party's viability for years to come after steady batterings, broken only by a temporary uptick in 1998.

A Tenenbaum victory could give new life to Democrats by slowing the Republicanization of South Carolina after 18 years of rapid growth to its current dominance.

A DeMint victory could relegate Democrats to long-term minority status.

"It's very, very important. We've invested a lot in rebuilding the infrastructure of the party and we've made great strides, but you have to close the deal," state Democratic Party chairman Joe Erwin of Greenville said Sunday.

"You have to win," Erwin said.

But John Simpkins, a political scientist at Furman University's Richard W. Riley Institute, disagrees on a debilitating impact on state Democrats should Tenenbaum lose.

"Not much changes for the Democrats if Inez loses the Senate race because expectations weren't especially high for them coming into this election cycle," he said.

"If anything, the party has been energized by Tenenbaum's ability to mount a serious challenge to a candidate whom many felt was a lock after the GOP primary, Simpkins said.

Erwin's Republican counterpart, Katon Dawson of Columbia, said a DeMint victory, giving South Carolina two Republican senators, would "be another step back for Democrats and their agenda and a tremendous step forward for our conservative agenda."

DeMint's defeat, he said, would re-energize Democrats, but wouldn't rigger a political realignment because of their thin bench.

Low ebb

Democrats are at their lowest ebb in modern state history.

The GOP holds the Governor's Office and six of the other eight statewide constitutional offices, a 26-20 edge in the state Senate, 75-49 in the House, and four of six U.S. House seats.

Democrats now have the problem Republicans faced in the 1960s and 1970s an inability to field competitive candidates over the range of offices, said Blease Graham, a University of South Carolina political science professor.

"Barring some major change in national politics that affects South Carolina, a two to three-decade or more continued Republican dominance in South Carolina is a real possibility," Graham said.

Bruce Ransom, a professor at Clemson University's Strom Thurmond Institute, has called the 2004 Senate race "a crucial election" for Palmetto State Democrats who face the prospect of being shut out of all the critical statewide offices. Democrat pluses

Graham noted that Democrats might be encouraged by the apparent closeness of the Senate contest and the grassroots interest it stirred.

"If the appeal to newly registered young voters results in increased Democratic identification, a base for future support may result," he said.

Erwin said Tenenbaum's ability to hold the seat of retiring Democratic Sen. Ernest F. Hollings "would show people that not only can we compete," Democrats can win when "we give our best effort, have great volunteer support, and are smart about all the things that equal election day victory" from recruiting good candidates to effective get-out-the-vote drives.

"That creates confidence and momentum" that the party greatly needs, he said.

But the downside, a loss, wouldn't be a devastating blow.

"Remember, we were a huge underdog in this, (one) the GOP considered a win just waiting to happen," Erwin said. But the race has closed since Labor Day, by capitalizing on opportunity and strong showings in five statewide televised debates.

It's one race in a long-term process that must include winning more at the local level, sheriff's and county council elections, something "we've haven't been winning for quite a while.

"Now, if we get slaughtered Tuesday, it'll be a very negative thing," Erwin said.

The GOP's Dawson said Democrats are where his party was a couple of decades ago, reflected by their numerous, contentious primaries and Democrats' reliance on selecting consensus candidates from a limited pool of prospects.

The candidates

DeMint and Tenenbaum are 53. DeMint, a native of Greenville, is wrapping up his third and final term in the U.S. House. Tenenbaum, a Georgia native and teacher and lawyer who moved to Columbia in 1975, is midway through her second term as the state's education superintendent.

Tenenbaum has campaigned as a self-described "South Carolina independent" whom matches DeMint in supporting the death penalty, gun ownership rights and the war in Iraq, and opposing partial birth abortion and gay marriage.

Where Tenenbaum has held her national ticket at arm's length, DeMint has campaigned as unabashed ally of President Bush, a free-trader and a proponent of sweeping tax, health care and Social Security reform.

Those issues emerged as the flashpoints of the campaign.

Beyond its statewide implications, the DeMint-Tenenbaum campaign is inextricably linked to the larger picture of whether Republicans will retain their narrow 51-49 U.S. Senate majority.

That has brought it white-hot attention.

Tenenbaum and DeMint raised nearly $13 million through Oct. 15 and the national parties' Senate committees kicked in $5 million to $6 million, much of it for television ads. Interest groups mounted their own campaigns for their favorites. Five Republicans defeated in the primary spent another $7.9 million.

Winding down

The candidates visited churches on Sunday, DeMint in Spartanburg and Tenenbaum in Charleston.

Today, both will engage in the traditional fly-around, hitting key media markets.

Tenenbaum will greet arriving workers at the Westvaco plant in Charleston, accompanied by U.S. Rep. Jim Clyburn of Columbia. Other stops will include the "Women in Welding" program at Florence-Darlington Technical College, eateries at lunchtime in Columbia, wrapping up with a 4:45 p.m. rally at her Greenville campaign office at University Center, the former McAlister Square Mall.

DeMint will hold airport news conferences in Columbia, Rock Hill, Charleston, Hilton Head, Aiken and Greenville Downtown Airport at 4:05 p.m. Gov. Mark Sanford and U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham will travel with him, although Graham will drop off in Aiken.

Four minor-party candidates will also on the ballot:

Patrick Tyndall, Constitution Party; Efia Nwangaza, Green; Rebekah Sutherland, Libertarian; and Tee Ferguson, United Citizens. Dan Hoover covers politics and can be reached at 298-4883.