Posted on Wed, Aug. 11, 2004
TROPICAL WEATHER

Bonnie, Charley expected
in Carolinas this weekend



The Sun News

Carolina residents can sing the alphabet song this hurricane season with the first storm Alex brushing by the Grand Strand last week and now Bonnie and Charley on their way.

The second and third storms, Bonnie and Charley respectively, will arrive in the area this weekend after making landfall on the Gulf side of Florida as hurricanes.

"Both make landfall in the eastern Gulf of Mexico and track across the Carolinas this weekend," said Tom Matheson, a warning coordination meteorologist for the National Weather Service in Wilmington, N.C. "The wind threat is not as great as it would be had they made landfall on the East Coast ... but decaying tropical cyclones are well known to cause tornadoes and flooding."

Many residents in Horry, Georgetown and Brunswick, N.C., counties probably remember Hurricane Bonnie from Aug. 26, 1998. Then Bonnie made landfall as a Category 3 storm near Cape Fear, N.C. Towns sustained considerable damage.

Brunswick County officials reported $21 million in damage, including 143 structures damaged in Calabash. Further south in North Myrtle Beach, officials reported about $30 million in damage while Myrtle Beach calculated about $6 million in damage from Bonnie in 1998.

The brush with Alex and now potential flooding problems and tornadoes from Bonnie and Charley mean residents should be prepared for the 2004 Atlantic hurricane season.

"It's wake-up time, and it's time for people to do the preparations they need to do and treat this as an active season," Matheson said. "Hurricanes are a beautiful thing, but what makes them a disaster is that people are not prepared. Now is the time to prepare. Don't be a part of the disaster."

Those preparations also should include taking note of the National Hurricane Center's reissuance of its 2004 hurricane outlook, which calls for 12 to 15 tropical storms, with six to eight becoming hurricanes and two to four of those becoming major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher.

The forecast is slightly less than one issued by William Gray, a Colorado forecaster, who revised his forecast Friday. He predicts 13 tropical storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

NHC forecasters and Gray agreed neutral conditions in the Pacific ocean could thwart major hurricane development. Matheson warned such conditions don't mean a major storm can't form. Hurricanes Hugo, Andrew and Fran all formed and made landfall during seasons with similar conditions.

"The Pacific Ocean is on the warm side, which can enhance shearing potential in the upper atmosphere winds, so as storms develop, the shearing effect tends to limit the major hurricane development," he said. "It's nothing to sneeze at, which is what we have this year, but it means hurricane season is just kicking off."


Contact TONYA ROOT at 248-2149 or troot@thesunnews.com.




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