Weaker Isabel barrels toward Outer Banks

e-mail this story

Clear, dry skies were predicted for the Upstate.

Isabel's 160 mph winds diminished to 125 mph as it moved over cooler waters and was affected by other weather systems, dropping it to a Category 3 hurricane, the National Hurricane Center in Miami said.

Landfall could be anywhere from North Carolina to New Jersey, forecasters said, but the 72-hour track runs through Cape Hatteras, N.C.

South Carolina, especially the northeastern corner, isn't entirely out of danger, said Eric Blake, a forecaster at the National Hurricane Center in Miami, but the likelihood of a hurricane force strike is scant.

The Myrtle Beach area "should be closely watching, even though our forecast track is east, it's definitely not unprecedented that it could track a little to the west of that and have more of a direct blow," Blake said. "Even on it's current path, there's some likelihood Myrtle Beach could seek tropical force winds and it's going to see some big surf. That's the big concern, (with) some models showing 12-foot seas."

Tropical force winds are 35 to 74 mph.

Patrick Moore of the National Weather Service station in Greer said that with current projections, which are subject to change, the Myrtle Beach area will experience "a breezy day, to be sure, when this thing passes, and some very heavy surf."

Moore said the storm's center, based on its current speed and track, could come ashore on North Carolina's Outer Banks at mid-day Thursday. But, he cautioned that 72-hour forecasts can be off by as much as 100 miles either way.

Upstate residents can look forward to a sunny and dry week.

"It's going to be fine here," said Moore's fellow meteorologist Chris Horne. "The forecast track of the hurricane will be well east."

Horne said that means the rain will simply be too far away from Greenville for any soaking of the Upstate.

Hurricanes are such powerful low-pressure systems that they suck moisture in from all sides and create down-drafts along their edges that make the weather dry, he said.

Isabel's hulking presence could be noticed in the form of breezy conditions Thursday — with 15 to 20 mph winds locally — less than wind gusts from a typical summer thunderstorm, Horne said.

There was a 10-18 percent chance that Isabel will pass within 75 miles of the Myrtle Beach area during the 72-hour period beginning at 8 a.m. Monday, the NHC said.

Mark Kruea, spokesman for the city of Myrtle Beach, said emergency plans are in place and generators ready, although it appeared the area may be spared the worst of Isabel's wrath.

With the center headed well to the north, toward Cape Hatteras, "That's still closer than we'd like it to be," Kruea said. Expectations are for strong winds, heavy rain and high seas, but from the less damaging left side of the storm.

Gov. Mark Sanford continued to monitor the storm and held conferences calls, first with directors of agencies that would be involved in relief efforts, later with mayors and county council chairmen from upper coastal counties. Another round of calls is scheduled for today.

Will Folks, Sanford's spokesman, said the governor remains concerned over Isabel.

"With a storm this size, with gale force winds extending 205 miles, you're not out of the wood until you're out of the forecast window and then it's a matter of helping your neighbors," Folks said.

Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge telephoned Sanford to offer any needed assistance and a Federal Emergency Management Administration official arrived from Atlanta to coordinate any federal aid, Folks said.

Given the storm's path, there is no timetable for voluntary or mandatory evacuations, he said.

From North Carolina northward, coastal residents were boarding up, stocking up and watching Isabel's relentless approach. The U.S. Navy prepared to send Atlantic Fleet warships from Norfolk to ride out the storm at sea rather than be battered against their docks.

All 921 residents of Ocracoke Island in North Carolina's vulnerable Outer Banks were ordered to begin evacuating Monday afternoon. A line quickly formed at the ferry dock.

In Virginia, Gov. Mark R. Warner declared a state of emergency, putting National Guardsmen, state police and transportation crews on full alert.

Officials in Baltimore canceled leave for staffers in the police, fire, transportation and public works departments.

Emergency officials in central and eastern Pennsylvania started planning for the growing likelihood that Isabel or its remnants would bring high wind and heavy rain into the state by Friday morning.

Monday evening, the NHC placed Isabel moving northwest at 8 mph, 740 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatter

The storm dropped to a Category 3 hurricane with maximum sustained winds near 125 mph and higher gusts. Forecasters said they expected "little overall change" in Isabel's strength over the 24-hour period. The storm had been a Category 5 — the highest — two days ago before dropping to a Category 4 on Sunday.

Hurricane force winds — 75 mph and higher — extend outward up to 105 miles from the storm's center and tropical storm force winds extend 205 miles, according to the advisory. Also, "dangerous surf conditions" were likely for Southeast coastal areas for much of the week.

In North Carolina, officials are preparing a plan that would reverse eastbound traffic on Interstate 40 if Isabel strikes. The plan would allow westbound traffic to drive in eastbound lanes for the 90 miles between Wilmington and the interchange with I-95.

Isabel is the first major hurricane to threaten the region since Floyd in September 1999. Floyd came ashore near Cape Fear, N.C., and continued along the coast into New England, and was blamed for 56 deaths in the United States.

(Staff writer Jason Zacher and The Associated Press contributed to this report.)

—

Dan Hoover covers politics and public policy issues. He can be reached at 298-4883.