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Article published Apr 26, 2004
Hawkins, Bright prepare for primary battle
Tom Langhorne
Staff
Writer
As a longtime political warrior whose ambition and zest for
combat has made him more than a few enemies, state Sen. John Hawkins knew his
2004 bid for re-election would not be easy.Hawkins' exit from the Republican
Party's 2002 attorney general primary because of fallout from revelations about
a dismissed 1989 rape charge had emboldened his opponents. Conventional wisdom
held that they would pour everything they had into defeating him this year and,
indeed, a credible opponent emerged in the form of Roebuck businessman Lee
Bright.Bright will compete against Hawkins in a GOP nominating primary to be
held June 8. The winner will be the heavy favorite to defeat Democrat Leonardo
Ortiz in November.Making Hawkins' presumably dicey re-election pros-pects even
dicier were the barely disguised opposition of GOP Chairman Rick Beltram and the
outright opposition of a cadre of pro-Beltram party activists who could be
expected to wield influence in any primary.But, six weeks before the voting,
there are indications that Hawkins will defeat Bright handily unless the
complexion of the race changes dramatically before then.The two candidates'
campaign disclosure forms for the first quarter of 2004 indicate that Hawkins
has nearly $110,000 on hand to spend on the race, while Bright has just slightly
more than $26,500.A March opinion poll commissioned by Hawkins' campaign
indicates that 59 percent of likely primary voters support him versus 13 percent
for Bright, with 28 percent undecided. Public Opinion Strategies, a Washington,
D.C.-based polling firm that has worked for U.S. Rep. Jim DeMint's 2004 U.S.
Senate campaign and President Bush's re-election, conducted the poll.Bright
counters with a poll showing him 16 points behind Hawkins, but with 71 percent
of likely voters undecided -- a number he calls "fatal" to Hawkins' re-election
hopes but which a political scientist calls ridiculous.The poll was conducted in
February by Richmond, Va.-based Conquest Communications, which does political
consulting and direct voter contact services for Republican candidates. It shows
Hawkins with 21 percent of the vote compared to Bright's 5 percent."It is very
implausible that 71 percent of voters would be undecided, especially with a
candidate as well-known as Hawkins, who has also run in a statewide race," said
USC Spartanburg political scientist Ron Romine. "Never in my life have I seen a
poll with undecideds that high."Romine said political polling is an exact
science heavily dependent on the accurate identification of likely voters and
phrasing and subtext of questions. Polls paid for by candidates themselves
should be discounted for bias at any rate, he said."I do agree that these
numbers would not be good news for Hawkins if they really are accurate," he
said. "But they do not sound plausible."Of greater concern to Bright, Romine
said, should be the wide fund-raising disparity between him and Hawkins."It
would be very hard to find a case where an incumbent with a lot more money than
his challenger got beat," he said. "Bright would probably need $200,000 to stand
a chance against Hawkins' name recognition, the ability he has had to help
constituents while in office and all the other advantages that an incumbent has
– like the ability to draw the lines for his own district."It's going to be
almost impossible to defeat John Hawkins."State GOP Chairman Katon Dawson
declined to speculate on Bright's chances, instead offering praise for both
candidates. The race is one of only two GOP primaries for Senate seats in the
state in which incumbents are being challenged.Dawson did say it is "very
difficult" to defeat any incumbent."What really matters is the ability to raise
money and how you spend it," the state party chairman said.The challenger's
strategyAcknowledging his need for money, Bright says he will hold a major
fund-raiser on May 11. He is also counting on an intensive door-to-door campaign
that he said has had him calling on several hundred likely voters per week since
Feb. 6.Leading supporters hopefully note the presence of Bright for Senate signs
on voters' personal property. But those same supporters privately fret about
Bright's joint appearances with Hawkins, during which he often appears
overmatched by a more polished incumbent.They also wonder if Bright's
impassioned advocacy of tort reform might look to some voters like an angry
fixation with lawyers.Bright's emphasis on tort reform, which he characterizes
as "much-needed reforms to stop frivolous lawsuits," appears to be driven by his
own experiences as owner of On Time Trucking.A July 2003 campaign letter under
the letterhead, "Physicians for Lee Bright" states that Bright "has felt the
sting of frivolous lawsuits.""He has seen his insurance premiums increase and
his revenues decline because our laws make it too easy to engage in senseless
litigation," the letter declares. The latter statement is repeated in an August
2003 letter under the letterhead, "Small Business for Bright."Bright's list of
contributors is heavy with the names of physicians presumably concerned about
what one of the campaign letters calls "the rising cost of malpractice
insurance." Indeed, Bright's May 11 fund-raiser will be held at the home of a
physician.Bright's campaign literature and his public remarks often contain
criticism of trial lawyers. He trumpets the fact that Hawkins, an attorney, has
received much of his funding from lawyers – once even going so far as to accuse
lawyers of trying to buy the election for Hawkins.But Romine said tort reform,
while important to doctors, lawyers and business leaders like Bright, is not an
issue that resonates for voters."Most people don't understand it, and it just
doesn't seem to penetrate," he said. "To defeat an incumbent, you need a
blockbuster issue that gets their attention and fires them up – a screw-up by
the incumbent, a scandal, a vote that appalls the public."Talking about
someone's voting record doesn't get through unless there is some really
compelling thing there."Hawkins said voters don't ask him about tort reform –
but they do ask about property taxes, jobs and the economy, and health care for
senior citizens."You can't go to Columbia and be a one-issue candidate," he
said.Though Bright has often said Hawkins opposes tort reform because he is
doing the bidding of lawyers who contribute to his campaigns, Hawkins said he
couldn't recall voting on any major tort reform legislation in eight years as a
lawmaker."The assumption is that I'm a lawyer, so I must be opposed to tort
reform," he said. "Not true. I may differ with others on particulars of the
plan, but I have always been willing to support a reasonable plan."On April 13,
Hawkins voted to send a comprehensive tort reform package out of the Senate
Judiciary Committee to the floor of the Senate. He said the vote annoyed some
his supporters who are attorneys.Hawkins said there is nothing sinister or
unusual about politicians accepting campaign contributions from lawyers."People
understand you need money to run a campaign," he said. "What they don't want to
see is you being unduly influenced by the people who give you the money. I've
been independent."Hawkins characterized the tort reform package he voted for as
a compromise, but Bright said it didn't go far enough."All (Hawkins) did was
make a committee vote, a vote to send it to the Senate floor," he said.The GOP's
Dawson said that, in the end, voters will have to choose between two competing
visions and images."John Hawkins is a substantial political player and a very
strong incumbent, and Lee Bright is a popular business person," he said.
"Whichever one wins, the voters of Senate District 12 will be the real
winners."Tom Langhorne can be reached at 562-7215 or tom.langhorne@shj.com.