Republicans target Spratt

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The last Republican to challenge John Spratt for his 5th District Congressional seat, Albert Spencer, spent an anemic $1,215 on his campaign and still garnered 37 percent of the vote.

Spratt won handily, but spent $746,509 in the process.

And although Spratt, the longtime Democratic incumbent, received 63 percent of the votes, George Bush beat John Kerry 57 percent to 42 percent in the same district, a 15-point shellacking.

Those two facts combined have Republicans across the nation eyeing Spratt's spot, and they claim that in Ralph Norman they've found the man to take the seat.

Democrats say Spratt isn't as vulnerable as people would like to think. They call him a "fiscal hawk" and a social moderate whose seniority after 24 years in Congress will make him hard to handle.

Both sides agree, though, that South Carolina's 5th Congressional District is unusual and in the face of a serious and seriously financed two-way campaign, the outcome is uncertain.

The 5th is one of two Democratic

districts left in South Carolina, and the other one, Jim Clyburn's 6th, is considered impregnable.

"John Spratt is one of the five most vulnerable Democrats in the country," National Republican Congressional Committee spokesman Jonathan Collegio said.

"Any district held by an incumbent Democrat where Bush beat Kerry, there's an opportunity for a Republican to make a move, and in the 5th Bush won by 15 points."

Collegio said the turning point for Norman could be a large influx to York County of Republicans who work in Charlotte but have fled that city's high cost of living and taxes.

At the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, spokeswoman Adrienne Elrod conceded the 5th is an area of concern that her group will keep a close eye on but said, "John Spratt has a strong record of working hard for South Carolina families, and he will be continuing that work after November's elections."

For his part, Norman, a Rock Hill real estate developer and first-term state representative, said he recognizes that the campaign will be a marathon, not a sprint.

"It's my job right now to build an organization and build a campaign that moves forward. If I can do that and make it look competitive, my sense is that help will come, but we have to earn that help."

Norman has been raising money and has more than $600,000 on hand, compared to Spratt's war chest of approximately $1 million.

Political analysts estimate each side could spend between $2 million and $3 million when all is said and done.

Neither candidate faces opposition in upcoming primaries -- Republican Park Gillespie announced but has since dropped out -- so the focus is on November.

But the question is, can Spratt, even in a state and an area skewing more Republican each year, be toppled?

The last time Spratt faced real opposition was during the Republican Revolution of 1994, when he beat Rock Hill restaurateur Larry Bigham 52-48. Bigham again opposed Spratt again in 1996 but garnered only 45 percent of the vote.

In the four elections since, no one's come close to beating Spratt. In two of them, no Republican even bothered to run.

"It's the incumbent thing, and this year, the fact that the Republicans are going south in a hurry," USC Upstate political science professor Ron Romine said. "Right now, John Spratt is virtually unbeatable no matter what kind of noise the Republicans are making because even in a district like Spratt's, Republicans are running for the hills to get away from George Bush and Tom DeLay."

Romine, a Democrat, said Spratt is so highly regarded and so conservative compared to most of his congressional counterparts that he shouldn't have any problems.

As for consistent Republican efforts to link Spratt to Democratic House Leader and noted liberal Nancy Pelosi (Pelosi often says she trusts Spratt because their opinions differ, not because they're the same), with whom Spratt works closely, Romine said, "Do people in Rock Hill even know who Nancy Pelosi is? Incumbents win 98 percent of the time, and in a year when Democrats legitimately believe they can take back the House majority, you're not going to see a 12-term incumbent Democrat go down."

The 5th District stretches from Cherokee County in the northwest quadrant of the state to Dillon County in the northeast. It encompasses all or part of 14 counties and demands media buys in four separate markets.

It includes economically challenged and minority-heavy areas like Fairfield, Lee and Marlboro counties and more prosperous and whiter areas like York and Newberry counties.

York County is where the lion's share of the growth is, and York County is where Republicans believe they can win the seat.

"York County voters now make up 25 percent of the district, and a lot of them, the ones who've just moved there, have never heard of John Spratt," Clemson University political science professor and Republican strategist Dave Woodard said. "All they know is he's a Democrat and they're Republicans."

As for the idea that voters will keep Spratt because his seniority allows him to bring home federal money in the shape of earmarks, Woodard said, "He does have seniority, but his party isn't in power. No matter how high on the totem pole you are, you don't bring home the bacon when your party isn't calling the shots."

Woodard believes the Republicans will see losses in the House and Senate in 2006 but will maintain majorities in both.

Norman is the handpicked candidate, the anointed of Republican powerbrokers in Washington.

One sign of just how important this race is: Karl Rove and Dick Cheney have already come to South Carolina to hold fundraisers for Norman.

But how did this political newcomer catch everybody's eye and come to be named "the perfect candidate?"

"I think it really started with (South Carolina Congressman) Joe Wilson," Collegio said. "He's been talking about Ralph Norman as a star in the making for a while, and we just loved what we saw."

Wilson, the third-term Republican from the 2nd District, said, "I've known Ralph for some time now, and I do think he's the perfect candidate for this seat. His background as a businessman and his experience in community organizations and now, the state House, give him a real sense of what needs to be done in Washington. Ralph understands his constituency and he understands people. He's got the perfect photogenic family and the perfect beliefs for the district. He's just exactly what's needed."

Speaking to his qualifications and experience, Norman highlighted his life as a small businessman, grassroots political operative and civic leader and said of his time as a legislator in Columbia, "What I've been able to accomplish most with as little seniority as I have is to stop useless bills at the subcommittee level. On key votes, I've kept my word and been fiscally responsible to the voters, and I've voted with Governor Sanford to sustain his vetoes 97 percent of the time."

Communicating via e-mail on the subject of national money and the importance of this race outside of South Carolina, Spratt said as a senior member of Congress, he generally donates more money to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee than he receives from it.

"The Republican Congressional Committee has targeted this race, which probably means several hundred thousand dollars in direct campaign contributions and a lot more in third-party contributions," Spratt wrote. "My opponent has spoken of budgeting $2 million-$3 million for this race; whether or not national contributions reach that level will depend, to some extent, on my opponent's being able to poll close enough to indicate that he can outrun me."

A poll conducted by the Spratt campaign in early March showed the incumbent with a commanding 61 percent of likely voters, but both sides say it's too early in the process of publicizing Norman to lend much credence to that.

Both men are constructing their campaigns now. Spratt has to modify a structure already in place while Norman is creating a whole new entity.

Both men plan to stick to their guns and paint themselves as the true fiscal conservatives. Norman has attacked Spratt's attempts to rescind Bush's tax cuts.

Spratt says he plans to put the country back on track to wipe out the deficit by restoring the plan that was in place before Bush came to office.

For Spratt, there aren't many questions. He'll campaign as he has for years, combining significant spending with grassroots efforts and a solid organization.

Woodard believes Spratt will out-fundraise Norman but argued that past a certain level it doesn't matter, saying, "With money there's a point of diminishing returns once you spend a certain amount. Ralph's spread will be competitive."

Norman, though, must build an organization and a reputation to rival Spratt's by the end of summer if his reinforcements are to be summoned.

"We'll take a look at where Norman's campaign is in August," said Collegio of the Republican Congressional Committee. "Until then, it's Ralph Norman's race to run. But if he turns out to be the candidate we think he can be and he builds the organization, we'll make that assessment and we'll certainly spend accordingly when the time comes."

Lane Filler can be reached at 562-7426 or lane.filler@shj.com.