MEMBERS OF the state's joint tax study committee probably
expected a basic, boring backgrounder from a tax policy wonk when
they gathered last month for their first real meeting. They did get
the basic backgrounder -- which is something any group undertaking
the gargantuan task of examining our state and local tax structure
desperately needs.
But panel members also got some advice that should be extremely
useful in evaluating the intriguing proposal to eliminate school
property taxes and replace them with a higher sales tax.
The basic backgrounder was, well, basic: A well-designed tax
system should produce an adequate amount of revenue year in and year
out; it should be fair, however the state defines that; it should be
simple, which is to say it should be cheap and easy for the state to
administer and taxpayers to obey; it should be neutral, which means
it treats all types of business the same (I would disagree on this
point, but that's another column.); and it should be competitive
with other states.
The tax policy wonk delivering the basics, William Fox, director
of the Center for Business and Economic Research at the University
of Tennessee, tailored some of those basics to the current fiscal
crisis: The key isn't how you fund government for 2004, but how you
fund government over the long term.
Dr. Fox made it clear that he's not the type of economist our
state's leaders can dismiss easily. Republican leaders have a
tendency to dismiss economists as a bunch of wild-eyed liberals who
just want to raise your taxes. In some cases, they are; in others
they're not, but it's an easy way to respond to messages that
conservatives -- i.e., those who don't like change -- don't like to
hear about deep flaws in the way they've always done things.
When Dr. Fox talked about how states avoided raising broad-based
taxes during the current recession, he said doing so would have been
a bad idea; he also noted that it was a bad idea to lower
broad-based taxes during the boom times of the mid-'90s.
He said Tennessee has a "structural deficit" in its tax system
because it has to keep raising rates in order to collect the same
percent of the state's economic wealth. "That creates all sorts of
bad behaviors," he said, such as businesses avoiding the state.
His big message: States should design good tax systems and plan
their spending so they don't have to raise and lower tax rates as
the economy changes. While it's up to each state to decide the rate
of taxation, a well-designed tax system will bring in the same
percentage of a state's economy whether the economy is boom or bust.
Generally, he said, taxes should cover as much of the economy as
possible at as low a rate as possible.
Unfortunately, our state fails on both measures. And that leads
to the bottom-line message: "Your taxes have performed worse than
the norm across the United States," he said. As the tax rates stay
constant, our tax collections, as a percentage of the economy, are
dropping -- and they're dropping faster than most states.
The two big culprits are the corporate income tax and the sales
tax. (Unfortunately, Dr. Fox did not look at property taxes, the
most difficult type of tax to get a handle on.) While there are
important policy reasons to address it, the corporate tax brings in
so little money that fixing it won't stabilize our budget.
That leaves the sales tax, which is a growing problem all over
the country, but whose problems are growing extra fast here. Sales
tax revenues are dropping off as shoppers turn from Main Street to
the Internet, where sales aren't taxed; as they purchase more new
products that tax laws don't cover (digital, downloaded books as
opposed to paper books); and as they spend less of their money on
goods and more on largely untaxed services.
The solution, Dr. Fox said, is not to raise the sales tax rate.
It's to redesign the sales tax base so it keeps up with the economy.
That means working with other states on a project designed to
persuade the Congress to let states treat Internet, catalog and
phone sales the same way they treat Main Street sales. It means
culling the list of sales tax exemptions the Legislature has
granted. It means applying the sales tax to more services. ("The
question is not do we tax services or not; it's a service-by-service
question.")
This message is especially important as state officials consider
replacing school property taxes with a higher sales tax. The most
obvious lesson: This shouldn't even be considered unless officials
also do something to stabilize the sales tax base.
The other potential problem grows out of the need to maintain a
stable tax system. Dr. Fox suggests thinking of a tax system much as
you think of an investment portfolio: You want a combination of
high-growth, high-risk (or volatile) and low-growth, low-risk
(stable) taxes.
Property tax growth tends to be predictable, if slow, while sales
tax growth tracks the economy. Those differences don't mean you
can't do without one of the taxes, Dr. Fox said; it just means it's
difficult. "If you can create rainy-day funds, you could (build your
tax system around) either tax," he said. "But that requires the
discipline to do so."
I remain undecided on the tax swap. But unless we get a whole new
mindset at the State House, that final criterion alone could rule
out this proposal.