Posted on Mon, Mar. 14, 2005


Emergency officials told conditions ripe for another busy season


Associated Press

After weathering the busiest hurricane season in recent memory in 2004, South Carolina emergency officials were warned Monday that conditions are ripe for another busy season this year.

Warm sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and a weak El Nino provide the ingredients for another active year, said Stacy Stewart, a hurricane specialist with the National Hurricane Center.

Does that mean four hurricanes will smash into Florida as they did last year?

"Probably not. That was an extreme anomaly," Stewart told about 500 emergency officials and others gathered for the Hurricane/Emergency Management Workshop sponsored by the South Carolina Emergency Management Division.

But, he warned, "it would not be out of the question to see more and more intense hurricanes over the next 20 years."

Last year, during the height of the hurricane season, sea surface temperatures in the area of the Atlantic where hurricanes grow were about 0.5 to 0.75 degrees Celsius above average. Last month, they were already 1 degree above average, he said.

"We're already warmer now during the spring than we were during the last hurricane season," Stewart said. "That's the fuel that hurricanes feed off."

During El Nino years, upper atmosphere winds discourage the strengthening of hurricanes in the Atlantic. But this year there is expected to be a weak El Nino.

"You basically have the same conditions as last year," Stewart said, noting that the Atlantic Basin is experiencing a period of increased hurricane activity.

The new hurricane season begins June 1 and continues through the end of November.

Last season saw 15 named tropical systems including nine hurricanes and six major hurricanes. The storms caused an estimated $45 billion in damage, the costliest hurricane season on record in the United States.

"As bad as it was, it was not catastrophic for Florida," said Craig Fugate, the director of the Florida Division of Emergency Management. "I do not want to diminish what happened to the victims."

But, he added, "none of our large population centers took direct hits. If you want to put it in perspective, this is not as bad as it gets."

Last year was one of the busiest hurricane seasons in memory in South Carolina.

Relentless storms battered the state's beaches, chased tourists from the coast and caused at least $146 million in damage and cleanup costs - more than any season since 1989's Hurricane Hugo, the storm by which all others are now measured in South Carolina.

The centers of four tropical systems crossed into South Carolina, the first time that has happened in a single season since 1893.

Two storms, Hurricanes Charley and Gaston, made landfall within weeks and within miles of each other in Charleston County. It was the first time since 1959 two named storms made landfall on the South Carolina coast during the same season.

The storms left South Carolina's beaches in their worst shape since Hurricane Hugo, officials with the state Department of Health and Environmental Control said Monday in the agency's State of the Beaches report.

The emergency management conference continues through Wednesday.

Other topics on the agenda include updates on state exercises dealing with weapons of mass destruction, a seminar on extremists who carry out terror attacks and a discussion of the inland effects of hurricanes.





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