Posted on Sun, Sep. 12, 2004


Shake-up comes at bad time for Tenenbaum


Staff Writer

Democratic U.S. Senate nominee Inez Tenenbaum has been making headlines recently for all the wrong reasons.

First, she dismissed her campaign director, Carol Butler. Then she sent her longtime media consultant, Bill Carrick, packing.

Word has it Tenenbaum wasn’t pleased with the course of her campaign.

“This is merely a sign of a campaign that cannot get traction,” said Larry Sabato, a University of Virginia political scientist.

It makes one wonder who’ll be the next to go.

Apparently, nobody.

“We’ve got a good team in place right now,” said spokeswoman Kay Packett.

Butler has been replaced by Greenville attorney Frank Holleman and Carrick by David Dixon and Richard Davis, Washington-based media specialists.

“It shows that we’re committed to running a strong, aggressive campaign,” Packett said. “We feel very positive about the change.”

The staff shake-up has the appearance of a campaign spinning out of control.

Not so, insisted Packett. “We feel very strongly that we’re on track.”

The dismissal of Butler and Carrick came at an inopportune time for Tenenbaum. Just as she was hoping to hit her stride, she was forced to explain the departure of two top aides, taking her off-message for a few days.

USC analyst Betty Glad said the staff shuffle was long overdue. “Her TV ads were bland. She needed to be more aggressive.”

Can Tenenbaum still win in a state that tends to be more Republican in presidential election years?

“Inez will do better here than (Democratic presidential nominee) John Kerry, which means she has a chance of winning,” Glad said.

Others aren’t so sure.

Robert Botsch, a political scientist at USC Aiken, said Tenenbaum lost valuable time explaining the staff changes. “If she had momentum, this certainly was a momentum breaker.”

Other observers said Tenenbaum lost a good opportunity to knock DeMint down a couple of notches with his controversial national sales tax proposal. She should have come back immediately with a TV ad attacking the idea.

Tenenbaum did launch a tough ad last week, but the issue had been bubbling for weeks.

“You have to respond quickly and negatively — go on the offense — and she didn’t do that,” Botsch said. “Unfortunately, negative TV ads work.”

Just a few months ago, veteran political observers saw the Tenenbaum-DeMint race as a real barnburner. Today, they see Tenenbaum losing ground in a state where a Democrat must run an almost-perfect campaign to be successful.

Tenenbaum has a lot going for her. She is a superb candidate, good campaigner and likable person. But doubts about her chances are seeping in.

Based on party identification alone, she starts off as the underdog, which means she has a lot of ground to make up.

“That’s hard to do when you’re on the defensive,” said Merle Black, an Emory University analyst.

DeMint got a huge boost with his strong finish in the GOP primary runoff. That propelled him into the lead in general election polls, a position he has held since.

The pressure is on.

With DeMint holding a comfortable lead, Black said it will take a dramatic effort on Tenenbaum’s part to turn her campaign around.

Sabato said President Bush easily will win South Carolina, and the state’s GOP tendencies will be very much on display.

The University of Virginia political scientist has changed his rating of the Senate race from “leaning” to “likely” Republican.





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