Shake-up comes at
bad time for Tenenbaum
By LEE
BANDY Staff
Writer
Democratic U.S. Senate nominee Inez Tenenbaum has been making
headlines recently for all the wrong reasons.
First, she dismissed her campaign director, Carol Butler. Then
she sent her longtime media consultant, Bill Carrick, packing.
Word has it Tenenbaum wasn’t pleased with the course of her
campaign.
“This is merely a sign of a campaign that cannot get traction,”
said Larry Sabato, a University of Virginia political scientist.
It makes one wonder who’ll be the next to go.
Apparently, nobody.
“We’ve got a good team in place right now,” said spokeswoman Kay
Packett.
Butler has been replaced by Greenville attorney Frank Holleman
and Carrick by David Dixon and Richard Davis, Washington-based media
specialists.
“It shows that we’re committed to running a strong, aggressive
campaign,” Packett said. “We feel very positive about the
change.”
The staff shake-up has the appearance of a campaign spinning out
of control.
Not so, insisted Packett. “We feel very strongly that we’re on
track.”
The dismissal of Butler and Carrick came at an inopportune time
for Tenenbaum. Just as she was hoping to hit her stride, she was
forced to explain the departure of two top aides, taking her
off-message for a few days.
USC analyst Betty Glad said the staff shuffle was long overdue.
“Her TV ads were bland. She needed to be more aggressive.”
Can Tenenbaum still win in a state that tends to be more
Republican in presidential election years?
“Inez will do better here than (Democratic presidential nominee)
John Kerry, which means she has a chance of winning,” Glad said.
Others aren’t so sure.
Robert Botsch, a political scientist at USC Aiken, said Tenenbaum
lost valuable time explaining the staff changes. “If she had
momentum, this certainly was a momentum breaker.”
Other observers said Tenenbaum lost a good opportunity to knock
DeMint down a couple of notches with his controversial national
sales tax proposal. She should have come back immediately with a TV
ad attacking the idea.
Tenenbaum did launch a tough ad last week, but the issue had been
bubbling for weeks.
“You have to respond quickly and negatively — go on the offense —
and she didn’t do that,” Botsch said. “Unfortunately, negative TV
ads work.”
Just a few months ago, veteran political observers saw the
Tenenbaum-DeMint race as a real barnburner. Today, they see
Tenenbaum losing ground in a state where a Democrat must run an
almost-perfect campaign to be successful.
Tenenbaum has a lot going for her. She is a superb candidate,
good campaigner and likable person. But doubts about her chances are
seeping in.
Based on party identification alone, she starts off as the
underdog, which means she has a lot of ground to make up.
“That’s hard to do when you’re on the defensive,” said Merle
Black, an Emory University analyst.
DeMint got a huge boost with his strong finish in the GOP primary
runoff. That propelled him into the lead in general election polls,
a position he has held since.
The pressure is on.
With DeMint holding a comfortable lead, Black said it will take a
dramatic effort on Tenenbaum’s part to turn her campaign around.
Sabato said President Bush easily will win South Carolina, and
the state’s GOP tendencies will be very much on display.
The University of Virginia political scientist has changed his
rating of the Senate race from “leaning” to “likely” Republican. |