"It's not a threat. It just happens to be what will happen," said Don Tudor, who oversees the operation of about 5,700 school buses.

Some lawmakers will have to be convinced there is a pending crisis. Rep. Bobby Harrell, first elected in 1992, said the state Education Department "regularly speaks in terms like the world's coming to an end."

"This is the third time I've heard that if we didn't do something, the fleet would shut down," he said. "This will be the third time that didn't happen."

South Carolina is the only state nationwide to own and maintain a bus fleet for its public schools. Charleston County is one of two districts statewide to contract out most of its bus operations, which includes hiring drivers, but the state still provides and repairs its regular route buses.

The cost of operating the state's fleet, which soon will log a combined 1 billionth mile, has climbed rapidly in the past decade. Most expenses are beyond the department's control. For example, fuel costs have almost doubled. Workers compensation insurance has nearly tripled. And old buses cost ever more to maintain. Yet the General Assembly consistently has cut the fleet's share of the general fund.

Since 1995, when the state bought 2,100 school buses, education officials have asked lawmakers to create a 15-year bus replacement cycle. Instead, they designated lottery profits "for the purchase of new school buses ... and the repair of existing school buses," as written in the 2001 law that created the South Carolina Education Lottery.

With other funds cut and costs rising, Tudor's office increasingly must use lottery money for repairs. With lottery designations shrinking too, the fleet faces a crisis, he said.

"We're spending more and more lottery money to support general operations. It has kept us out of the hole," Tudor said. "I don't think that's what the voters of this state approved the lottery for. If we didn't have to spend so much lottery money just to keep operating, we'd have more money for bus purchases."

A new, 66-passenger bus costs about $58,000. Since 2002, the state has bought fewer than 400 buses for 85 school districts. The average school bus is now 14 years old with 170,000 miles.

"There's no question we need more money for school buses ... but there's never enough money to do everything everybody wants," said Harrell, chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee.

The Charleston Republican said the Legislature will not allow the system to shut down. "We will fund what's necessary."

Despite the buses' ages and high mileage, state officials and bus workshop supervisors insist they are safe. Mechanics regularly inspect each. But decades-old buses are bound to break down.

"We're not running unsafe buses. We're running unreliable buses," said Garry Fast, supervisor of the Summerville bus shop, which serves Dorchester District 2 and parts of Berkeley and Charleston counties. "What I'm worried about are the breakdown times when kids are sitting out there or waiting at a stop or not getting home."

In May, he said, his shop averaged 20 breakdowns a day. Seven of his 160 buses have logged more than 300,000 miles. One that transports handicapped students for Dorchester 2 has driven nearly 415,000 miles. That's topped by a handicapped bus at the Georgetown shop, which also serves the rural McClellanville area of Charleston County. Its odometer will soon read 436,000 miles.

"It takes a lot of hard work to keep these old buses running, and the parts are harder and harder to come by," Fast said.

Last school year, bus workshops that serve the tri-county's four school districts received 3,346 calls to repair buses broken down on the roadside. That's up from 3,328 service calls in 2002-03 and 2,782 in 2001-02. Supervisors said those numbers would be even higher if mechanics recorded every time they went to schools to fix buses that wouldn't start.

"The General Assembly doesn't see transporting the next generation a priority," said Sloan Reeves, bus shop supervisor in Charleston County. "When buses were bought 20 years ago, I can guarantee they weren't bought with the forethought of being on the road 20 years and 250,000 miles later."

Supervisors also said the bus failures are getting worse.

"Engines are going out. Transmissions are going out. There are bad oil leaks," said Berkeley County bus supervisor Mark Catoe. "It's getting harder and harder to keep buses safe. If we keep going the direction we're going, I can only see something bad happening down the road."

Poor pay contributes to the problem, supervisors said.

Starting pay for bus mechanics is $10.74 per hour. The service trucks they drive, many without air conditioning, date to 1975.

"There's not much of an incentive to get people to work for you," Catoe said. "You can't find experienced people for what they pay. We have to train them on the job."

The turnover rate for mechanics statewide is about 25 percent. The number of mechanics has not increased in 25 years, Tudor said.

He said his office has enough money to operate buses for 2005-06, largely because he carried over much of the $18 million in lottery money set aside for the fleet last school year.

This year, lawmakers designated the first $12 million of unclaimed lottery winnings to other departments. So Tudor's office won't get a penny until after that's dispersed, which he expects to be next May or June.

Tudor estimates that leftover money at up to $6 million.

"That's the money we'll have to carry forward to 2005-06," Tudor said. "We're going to be short unless the General Assembly finds another source, and they've got to be quick."

Tudor said lawmakers have responded to previous funding emergencies with enough money to keep buses rolling, though not enough to fix the problems and prevent a future crisis.

"The whole purpose of a state agency is to tell the General Assembly of a problem, and the General Assembly to respond," he said. "They've supplied enough to keep it going, although it's questionable as to what's the difference between what's necessary and what will keep it going."

State Education Superintendent Inez Tenenbaum asked Gov. Mark Sanford for an extra $71 million in 2004-05 for new school buses. He instead proposed that the state privatize school bus operations.

About one-third of school buses nationwide are owned and operated by student transportation contractors. Except in South Carolina, local school districts operate the rest, said Robin Leeds, industry specialist for the National School Transportation Association.

"States have varying degrees of control over school transportation, ranging from one extreme, South Carolina, to what's really a hands-off approach where they will reimburse some percentage of school transportation," said Leeds, whose group represents school bus contractors.

Sanford believes privatization will save money and improve service. State and local officials agree on the latter, but believe costs will only increase as bills shift to local property taxes.

Lawmakers have directed the state Education Department to coordinate a nine-member committee to study school bus privatization. The committee, led by the governor's appointee, must report its findings to the General Assembly by Jan. 15. The group plans to meet for the first time next month.

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