Posted on Thu, Sep. 23, 2004


Meandering Jeanne might visit S.C. soon


Staff Writer

You know that hurricane kit you put together for Charley or Frances or Ivan? Don’t drink the bottled water or put those batteries in the kids’ hand-held games yet.

Jeanne could come visiting early next week.

Breezes and rain associated with Hurricane Jeanne are forecast to begin affecting the state’s coast Sunday, according to the National Weather Service.

Jeanne is expected to grow into a minimal Category 2 hurricane with sustained winds around 100 mph today.

The good news is the National Hurricane Center doesn’t think it will grow much stronger. The bad news is several of the computer forecast models have the storm making landfall along the South Carolina coast late Monday or early Tuesday.

That’s five days out, and the margin of error is huge, from the Chesapeake Bay to Miami. The path depends in large part on a high-pressure ridge that’s over South Carolina now, according to the National Hurricane Center. The best-case scenario is for the ridge to move farther east than expected on Monday and Tuesday, prompting Jeanne to stay over the Atlantic.

Jeanne has perplexed the computers so far. A week ago, the five-day forecast had Jeanne making landfall Sept. 21 near Savannah. Then it turned a loop east of the Bahamas as the remnants of Hurricane Ivan slipped back down into Florida.

Now Jeanne appears to be heading toward the Southeast coast again.

Even if Jeanne misses the United States, it will go down as one of the most deadly storms in recent years. The tropical system flooded the city of Gonaives in Haiti, killing an estimated 700 people.

In South Carolina, Jeanne is just the latest in the busiest hurricane season in recorded South Carolina history. A list of storms that have impacted South Carolina since 1870, compiled by the state climate office, includes several years in which three storms impacted the state.

But never before have four storms bedeviled the state in one year. The 2004 season is at five and counting after Bonnie, Charley, Gaston, Frances and Ivan.





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