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Lowcountry's eyes on Isabel


BY LYNNE LANGLEY
Of The Post and Courier Staff

If Hurricane Isabel stays on the forecast track, the Category 5 storm could bring hurricane-force winds to the South Carolina coast in five days.

Perhaps because of the storm's size or because of memories of Hurricane Hugo, Lowcountry residents got a jump-start Friday on buying bottled water, plywood, batteries and the like.

"Thursday the current track has the center poised just off the South Carolina coast," said Jerry Harrison, warning coordination meteorologist at the Charleston National Weather Service.

"Whether it makes landfall, I cannot say. We could be experiencing hurricane-related effects. We would be experiencing tropical storm-force winds at least," Harrison said Friday afternoon.

A 4 p.m. conference call with the National Hurricane Center gave Harrison the latest expert thinking and details of different computer models.

Isabel is headed in the general direction of the southeastern United States, he said, and the hurricane center is going with one model above the others.

"That model indicates Isabel is on track for the southeast coast and favoring South Carolina," Harrison said.

The vast hurricane is still a long way away, however, and could change course at least somewhat.

At 11 p.m. Friday, the center of Isabel was near latitude 21.8 north, longitude 59.5 west or about 320 miles north-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. A Category 5 hurricane, Isabel had maximum sustained winds near 160 mph and was moving west at about 9 mph.

The hurricane is expected to grow in size, perhaps beginning Monday. On Friday, hurricane-force winds extended out up to 85 miles from the center and tropical storm-force winds up to 185 miles from the center.

Although maximum sustained winds were blowing at nearly 160 mph, the hurricane is expected to weaken and could drop to a Category 3, with winds of 111 to 130 mph, after Monday and before reaching South Carolina, Harrison said.

Still, the prospect of any brush with the storm kept many busy Friday.

"There seems to be a panic out there," said a manager of the Lowe's on James Island. "People have bought up pretty much all the generators."

People left the home improvement store with pickup trucks full of plywood. Duct tape rolls were stacked by the entrance to the store and a quickly-dwindling stack of batteries adorned the check-out counter.

Lowe's employees expect an emergency shipment of supplies in a few days in case Hurricane Isabel does strike.

Just down the street on Folly Road, the Wal-Mart was bustling with customers, most of whom hurried from the store with several gallons of bottled water.

"My husband already went to the store this morning, so I'm just getting a few extras," said Theresa Chaplin, who left the Wal-Mart with several bottles of water and bags of potato chips. "But we're not overstocked."

Chaplin, an employee at Roper Hospital, would have to work even if the hurricane hits. She and her family stayed during Hurricane Hugo in 1989, so they are prepared for the worst.

With water, chips, flashlights and kerosene lamps flying off the shelves at Wal-Mart, the scarcest item in the store was D-size batteries, which are commonly used for flashlights.

"I found some hidden in the toy section," said Sandy Powell, who was accompanied by her two daughters, ages 5 and 3. Her family plans to evacuate if Isabel arrives. "It may be rough on them," she said. "But they have their popcorn and toys, so they're happy."

Surf could begin building on the South Carolina coast over this weekend and will increase more significantly by Tuesday, Harrison said.

A moderate risk of rip currents today will increase to a high risk by Monday and all of next week, said Harrison, adding that swimmers and surfers should beware.

A high-pressure ridge, sitting in the northeastern United States and building over the Atlantic, is forcing Isabel to take its current track, west then west-northwest and finally more northwest by late Sunday or Monday afternoon, Harrison said.

"So it looks like it is pointing more toward the South Carolina and Georgia coast," he said.

Other computer models, which look better for South Carolina, have Isabel turning right rather quickly, which could take the storm away from this state.

"They (hurricane center forecasters) don't think it is possible for Isabel to make such a drastic turn right with the high blocking it. The high would prevent a significant turn to the right," Harrison said.

After 5 p.m. Monday, the models forecasted very different tracks, said hurricane center forecaster Jack Beven.

"It is still too early to speculate which parts, if any, of the eastern coast of the United States may get affected by Isabel," he said late Friday afternoon.

On Friday, Isabel made what's known as a "wobble" to the right. "That's what we are hoping for," Harrison said. Hurricanes often make slight wobbles, however, so the hurricane center has not changed its five-day forecast track as a result.

The hurricane center wants to see what happens with the ridge, said Harrison, adding, "It is the dominant feature on the horizon."

If that ridge weakens or moves farther out over the ocean, Isabel could turn more out to sea.

"There are several indications the high will not weaken," Harrison said. "The southeast coast looks like it could be vulnerable and will be under the gun Wednesday, Thursday and Friday."

The remnants of what was Tropical Storm Henri, now hanging over the ocean near the South Carolina-North Carolina border, brought clouds to the Lowcountry on Friday.

The broad area of low pressure remains disorganized, but some redevelopment is possible this weekend, the hurricane center reported.

Phillip Caston also contributed to this report.


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