Hurricane expert: Direct hit due in S.C.

HURRICANE SEASON

It's been nearly 15 years since a major hurricane struck the S.C. coast, and the odds favor a direct hit in the next decade, said Max Mayfield, National Hurricane Center director.

But the year-old five-day forecasting system, made public last year by the center, can help residents and emergency managers be better prepared instead of panicked the next time a hurricane looms in the Atlantic Ocean, Mayfield said Wednesday at the start of the state's annual emergency managers conference sponsored by the state Emergency Management Division.

"I understand this is a sensitive topic here in South Carolina. ... But for the public, the [five-day forecast] should be used as a planning tool," Mayfield said. "There are a lot of people who need more than three days, like the Navy and the people on the drilling plat-
forms. You're not going to call for an evacuation or buildings to be boarded up four or five days out."

That five-day forecast upset some tourism leaders along the Grand Strand when it debuted last year because they feared inaccurate forecasts could drive visitors to other destinations or to cancel trips.

The forecasts, although accurate last year, can vary slightly on where exactly a hurricane will make landfall, but the larger concern is the strength of the storm, Mayfield said.

"We could forecast the eye to come to Myrtle Beach, but it could easily be 80 to 90 miles up or down the coast," Mayfield said. "My greatest fear is to have people going to bed preparing for a tropical storm or Category 1 hurricane and wake up to a Hugo or Andrew."

Because it's been so long since a direct landfall, South Carolina is long overdue statistically for a hit.

And with more people living along the coast, such a land-
fall could be devastating without proper planning, Mayfield said.

Of the 32 major hurricanes to form in the Atlantic Basin in the past nine years, only three made landfall, Mayfield said. Major hurricanes are those that measure Category 3 or above.

"Climatology tells us we should have had 10 or 11, and we've only had three. It's just a matter of time," Mayfield said. "In my opinion, the United States today is more vulnerable to a hurricane than ever before."

When that hurricane does make landfall in South Carolina, federal officials will be ready to respond, even though more focus has been put on terrorism planning since Sept. 11, 2001, said David Paulison, director of the Preparedness Division of the Federal Emergency Management Agency within the Department of Homeland Security.

"We're going to have hurricanes. We're going to have tornadoes, and we're going to have floods. We know that," Paulison said. "We will be stronger because our determination is strong, our resolve is strong and our response will be swift."