When you include children, that's about 19,000 people who have been affected by the state's tough "welfare-to-work" laws. State officials project another 1,400 adults next year will be booted out of the system.

What's happening to these people?

So far, the removal of so many families from the rolls has generated remarkably little controversy. The reasons why, however, may be surprising.

Welfare reform has been wildly successful in forcing people off welfare, shrinking South Carolina's rolls by two-thirds. But in many cases, it has merely turned welfare mothers into the working poor. An examination of the effects of welfare reform shows:

-- Welfare never paid poor people in South Carolina much in the first place, certainly not enough to raise anyone out of poverty. A single mother with two children receives only $205 a month, the fourth-lowest rate in the nation. "Welfare has never been a good career choice in South Carolina," said Linda Martin, director of research and planning for the S.C. Department of Social Services.

-- Still, people booted off welfare rolls often face a multitude of challenges, such has having their phones cut off, going without meals and missing rent payments, according to research by the DSS.

-- Many of welfare reform's "success stories" -- people who found jobs and made too much money to qualify -- find themselves mired in the same kinds of financial and social problems as those who were forced out of the system.

-- The effects of welfare reform have been dulled, in part, because many other strands in the public assistance safety net remain intact, including food stamps and subsidies for child care and housing. In fact, these other benefits are becoming increasingly important to poor people, whether they receive welfare checks or not.

-- Clouds may be forming, though, for people dependent on public assistance. In recent years, South Carolina and several other states have made it more difficult for low-income working families to receive child care subsidies, forcing some to quit their jobs and go back on welfare.

CRITICS FORCED CHANGE

Welfare sprang from efforts in the 1940s to help orphans and widows, assistance that eventually grew into a massive cash distribution program for the poor. Over time, critics said welfare created a culture that encouraged poor people to cheat the system and avoid getting jobs. President Reagan campaigned against "welfare queens" in 1979. In 1992, President Clinton vowed to change "welfare as we know it."

In 1995, state legislators passed some of the toughest welfare reform laws in the nation. Among the new rules: People could receive welfare for 24 months but only if they worked or took classes. And, once those 24 months were up, that was it -- no more welfare cash for the rest of their lives.

Not that welfare was any big windfall to begin with.

Krystal Arnold lives in Moncks Corner with her 8-year-old son and was eligible for $159 a month.

"It helps you, but it's not anything you can depend on," she said.

Arnold moved to South Carolina in 1995, at about the same time the state crafted its Family Independence welfare reform program. She had a cleaning job at the Navy base then, but when that work dried up, she joined a temp agency, bouncing from one job to another.

"I worked for good companies but would go on and off the welfare system while waiting for assignments. I was never full-time in the system."

Still, by late last year, she had used up her 24 months. "I call (welfare) a 'stipe-end,' because that's exactly what happened. It just ended."

She isn't alone.

"We're seeing a tremendous increase in the number of people applying for their last few months," said Mamie Johnson, a DSS supervisor in North Charleston. Last year, a record 1,884 people lost their lifetime allotment of welfare benefits, though DSS officials attribute some of the increase to the economic downturn that began in 2001.

Arnold landed on her feet, though, finding a full-time job last December with Goodwill Industries' Joblink Center in Summerville.

She is now what social scientists call a "welfare leaver," someone who has left the system after using up benefits or finding a job.

For better or worse, welfare reform has created millions of "leavers." After Congress passed federal welfare legislation in 1996, welfare rolls across the country were cut in half, from 4.4 million families then to about 2 million last year.

The change in South Carolina was even more pronounced, from 50,035 families in 1995 to 16,908 families last month, a 66 percent drop. The welfare reform experiment seemed a big success, but many policy experts wondered how people would fare once they were out of the system.

FALLING BEHIND

In 1997, South Carolina began an extensive research effort to follow welfare leavers, the first state to tackle this subject in any depth, said Martin, DSS's research and planning director.

The extensive research culminated in a study report published in December 2002. Over three years, researchers had asked more than 1,400 people about their lives during and after welfare, from how their children were behaving to whether their phones had been cut off.

Not surprising, the report painted a portrait of poverty.

People who left welfare because they used up their 24-month allowance experienced many hardships, the study found. One in 12 had to move, unable to pay for housing. Half fell behind on their bills, and 40 percent had their phones cut off.

In the winter, one in 10 went without heat. One in four needed child care but couldn't pay for it. Many found jobs after their benefits ran out, but 75 percent were being paid less than $8 an hour. Nearly 8 of 10 families who left because their benefits ran out were below poverty status.

More surprising were findings about the so-called welfare reform success stories -- people who left the rolls because they made too much money to qualify.

The report showed that these people suffered many of the same kinds of hardships as those who lost their benefits because of time limits.

Most were making less than $8 an hour, and half were below poverty status and felt like they were barely making it day to day. They frequently worked odd hours, weekends and late at night. Still, most said they felt better about their lives now that they were off welfare.

Welfare reform's record of breaking the cycle of poverty is "a mixed bag," said Kim Aydlette, DSS state director. "For some it has been wildly successful, others somewhat successful, and some we haven't helped."

Census statistics show that overall poverty rates have remained roughly the same since the 1970s, rising and declining as economic conditions fluctuated.

Martin said she never expected welfare reform to turn night into day for the state's poor.

"To me it was about incremental steps," she said, adding that she began her career at DSS 27 years ago as a caseworker in Richland County.

"It's about the belief that getting someone employed -- getting that foot in the door -- is better than the hopeless situation of coming in year after year to get your annual review and having to tell you that your check hadn't gone up."

BEYOND REFORM

One of the most far-reaching changes in welfare was the government's change in focus.

Instead of handing out checks, South Carolina and other states created programs to help welfare recipients find and hold jobs.

"Now, anyone who's in the welfare system is doing something, either working or taking classes," said Kris Plexico, a work force consultant for DSS in North Charleston.

Child care subsidies have become a critical benefit to people in low-wage jobs. Many would be forced to quit if these subsidies were cut off.

In South Carolina, parents can receive child care subsidies for two years after their lifetime welfare benefits run out. The subsidy acts as a parachute for many recipients, DSS officials say.

"One of my big concerns is do we give people enough support after they come off (welfare)," Aydlette said. "Are we dropping them off a cliff? From a financial standpoint, child care and Medicaid are more beneficial than the stipend itself."

Through its ABC child care voucher program, DSS pays as much as $90 per week per child to child care providers.

"If you have two or three children in daycare, you can sometimes pay more in child care than you make at your job," said Dora LaTorre, a supervisor at DSS in North Charleston.

Theresa Ravenell has no idea what she would do without child care vouchers.

Ravenell has seven children, including a 1-year-old. She was a stay-at-home mom until her marriage ended a year or two ago, then she went on welfare for nine months until DSS found her an $8-per-hour job as an electrician's helper. Though all her children except for the 1-year-old go to public schools, "during the summer, the child care is very important," she said. "I would have to quit my job without it."

Like child care subsidies, food stamps play an increasingly important role in keeping the poor afloat.

Nationwide, the government has seen a significant rise in the number of people claiming food stamps, which has eligibility requirements that are less strict than welfare. The number of food stamp recipients has risen 37 percent during the past three years.

Ravenell said she gets about $300 a month in food stamps. With eight mouths to feed, "that only goes so far," she said, but "it's something we really need."

NEEDS VERSUS BUDGET

But as these subsidies have grown in importance, some states, including South Carolina, are making it more difficult to get them.

A recent report by the General Accounting Office found that 23 states, including South Carolina, have adopted policies that reduce overall availability of child care assistance for low-income working families.

South Carolina recently transferred its child care public assistance program from the Department of Human Services to DSS.

Now, low-income families must go on welfare to get child care subsidies.

Caseworkers say this has made it difficult for families on the financial edge to get help. To get the child care subsidy, some people are temporarily quitting their jobs to get on welfare, then getting their jobs back.

"We can only give child care to 20 percent of the clients who really need it," said Leigh Bolick, director of the ABC child care program.

Aydlette said DSS is doing the best it can, considering its limited budget. It could do more if it received more federal money, she added.

She said the state receives only $211 per poor person from the federal government. The agency has been working with Congressional leaders to increase the federal share.

If successful, she said, the agency may be able to boost monthly welfare payments and increase child care subsidies for working poor people. The problem, she said, "is that the need just outweighs the resources."

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