Analysts say S.C. can seal it for Kerry

John Kerry can eliminate his last serious opponent by coming to South Carolina and beating John Edwards on his own turf next week, political observers said Tuesday.

“If Kerry beats Edwards in South Carolina, that’s probably it,” University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato said Tuesday night.

After being declared the winner in New Hampshire on Tuesday, Kerry announced he was buying his first television ads in South Carolina, a sure sign “he wants to get rid of Edwards now,” Sabato said.

South Carolina’s first-in-the-South primary is Tuesday. It also is the first in a state with a sizable black population.

Kerry’s aides “have undoubtedly reminded him of the times when ‘buyer’s remorse’ has struck candidates late in the process,” Sabato said. “It can’t strike if you don’t have any more opponents.”

Kerry wouldn’t spend the money here if he weren’t planning to go for the victory, said former Democratic National Committee chairman Don Fowler of Columbia.

“If he spends (on) television here, he’s contesting South Carolina — period,” Fowler said.

Sabato and Fowler agree that Edwards — leading the polls here — is Kerry’s final stumbling block to the nomination. Despite a soft third- or fourth-place finish in New Hampshire, Edwards is a South Carolina native and has made the Palmetto State his fire wall — win here at all costs.

If Kerry overcomes that, neither sees a competitor who can stop him.

“I can’t conceive of a set of circumstances unless something catastrophic happens to Kerry,” Fowler said.

That scenario obviously omits both Howard Dean and Wesley Clark from serious consideration — and Fowler and Sabato said that was deliberate.

Fowler said he doesn’t see where Dean goes from New Hampshire after finishing third in Iowa the week before.

“It’s very bad for Dean,” Fowler said. “I don’t know how you sustain a campaign with two showings like that when three weeks ago you were kicking (butt) everywhere.”

Dean is not likely to do well in Oklahoma, where Clark is running strong, and Fowler said he doesn’t believe the former Vermont governor’s politics play well in Arizona and New Mexico.

U.S. Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut, who was running fifth in New Hampshire, is not expected to be a factor, and neither are U.S. Rep. Dennis Kucinich of Ohio or the Rev. Al Sharpton.

Clark had been running strong in South Carolina, but his campaign Tuesday morning seemed to all but concede the state to Edwards. Stressing Edwards’ “native son” advantage and his position as a senator from neighboring North Carolina, Clark spokesman Bill Buck said, “We’re still playing there, but ... I wouldn’t exactly call it neutral ground.”

Buck said the campaign plans to focus Clark’s visits in the coming week on what he called “non-home-turf” Feb. 3 states, such as Arizona, Oklahoma and New Mexico.

Clark planned to honor a commitment to fly to South Carolina Tuesday night after the New Hampshire primary, but he was flying to Charleston instead of Columbia. After a morning appearance in the Lowcountry, Clark planned to fly to Oklahoma, New Mexico and Arizona today before a debate in Greenville on Thursday and forum in Columbia on Friday. No other S.C. visits were planned.

“Feb. 3 is going to be determined by a number of states and not just one state,” Buck said.

The other major prize Feb. 3 is considered to be Missouri, which has the most nominating delegates of any state in play that day. Both Edwards and Kerry are spending money and sending workers there to try to grab what was once considered a shoo-in for favorite son U.S. Rep. Dick Gephardt, who dropped out after a poor showing in Iowa.

Reach Gould Sheinin at (803) 771-8658 or asheinin@thestate.com. Staff Writer John C. Drake contributed to this report.