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Hurricane fury?

Stormy year for S.C. coast


Published Saturday, September 11th, 2004

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The storms just seem to keep coming.

Alex brushed the South Carolina coast. Then Bonnie cut through the middle of the state. Next Charley. Followed by Gaston. Not to be outdone, Frances came through, dumping plenty of rain on South Carolina. Now, Ivan could be on its way.

This year's hurricane season seems busier than most years. But experts say the number of storms hitting the state with winds greater than 40 mph isn't higher than average, but the number of tropical storm systems affecting the state is.

"Looking at the historical record back to the 1800s, I don't see any year that five storms have affected the state," said Jason Caldwell, severe weather liaison for the state climatology office.

Caldwell said a higher than usual overall temperature in the Atlantic Ocean may be contributing to the increase in the number of storms. Tropical storms gain strength over warmer waters.

The Atlantic hurricane season should have 16 named storms, Caldwell said, up from the average of 10.

Cary Mock, a University of South Carolina geography professor, said areas affected by hurricanes in the Atlantic should expect a more active period on average for the next 40 to 50 years because of the natural cycles of the ocean's temperature.

Mock said the early 1900s was a hectic time for tropical storms. During the early 1900s, Florida was hit by 16 storms Category 3 or stronger, meaning they had maximum sustained winds of 111 mph or more. However, the storms seemed to subside some during the second half of the century.

"The next 50 years could be more similar to the first 50 years of the 1900s," Mock said.

Mock said each year South Carolina normally is affected by up to four tropical cyclones, which are storms that are still named when they come through the state, such as Gaston and Charley. Other storms that have passed through, such as Bonnie and Frances, were only remnants of named storms.

"This year, we haven't been hit by a major hurricane," Mock said. "Definitely, we are long overdue."

In the last 100 years, according to the National Hurricane Center, the state has been hit by two Category 4 storms -- Hazel in 1954 and Hugo in 1989 -- and two Category 3 storms -- an unnamed storm in 1906 and Gracie in 1959.

While only those few large storms have hit South Carolina in recent memory, the state has been hit by many severe storms in the past.

Mock said the largest recorded storm to hit the state may have been one that came ashore in Charleston in September 1752. Records kept by the British Royal Navy -- South Carolina was a British colony then -- indicate the storm may have been a Category 4, one with maximum sustained winds ranging from 131 mph to 155 mph.

During a stretch of less than 20 years in the early 1800s, three Category 3 storms hit -- in the Beaufort and Charleston areas in 1804 and 1814 and Georgetown in 1822.

There is hope that the worst may be over this year. Friday was the official historical peak of the season, Caldwell said. But he warned there is another secondary peak in early October before the season winds to an end Nov. 30.

Also, the season should not be as strong in its second half because of the El Nino weather pattern forming in the Pacific Ocean. That pattern is associated with a weak Atlantic hurricane season, Caldwell said.

Fewer storms for the rest of the season should be good news for weary Lowcountry residents ready to turn off the Weather Channel.

Contact Jessica Flathmann at 706-8142 or .

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