No black candidate has ever won a statewide election -- and some analysts predict it could be another decade before that barrier is broken.

"South Carolina is definitely running behind in progressive attitudes toward race compared to some other Southern states," said Benedict College political scientist Glenda Suber. "Deep down, our basic beliefs and value systems have not fundamentally changed from the pre-civil rights era. Look at the Confederate flag fight."

Voters in Georgia, Tennessee, Virginia and North Carolina have elected blacks to statewide office, with Virginia the only state in the nation ever to elect a black governor -- Democrat Douglas Wilder, who left office in 1994. Some predict Mississippi will reach a similar milestone this November by electing one, perhaps two, popular pro-business black Democrats to constitutional office.

However, South Carolina voters rejected the same opportunity in 2002, just as they've done in four prior elections dating back to 1978.

A black candidate could win if he or she received overwhelming support from a high turnout of the almost 30 percent of registered voters who are black, along with two out of seven white votes, said University of South Carolina political scientist Blease Graham.

"African-Americans tend to win one or one and a half of those seven white votes, which puts you in the 40 percent range but not the majority," he said.

Analysts estimate at least 90 percent of black registered voters in the state are Democrats. By contrast, 97 percent of those voting in the 2002 state Republican primary were white.

"In South Carolina, Repub-lican is another word for white," said Sen. Kay Patterson, D-Col-umbia, a black 29-year veteran of the legislature.

Political parties and academics disagree about the current size of the parties' loyal support bases. Depending on who you talk to, Republicans now make up between 42 and 55 percent of the state's registered voters, Democrats between 30 and 35 percent and independents between 20 and 23 percent.

'Lag factor'

College of Charleston political scientist William Moore said that even among Democrats and independents, there is a race-based "lag factor."

Moore estimates that 5 to 10 percent of voters who normally would support white Democrats refuse to vote for black candidates regardless of party affiliation. In the 2002 general election, for instance, former Gov. Jim Hodges won 47 percent of the vote, but black Democratic attorney general candidate Steve Benjamin won only 44.5 percent.

USC's Graham predicts little change over the next decade given the strength of the state's Republican Party, its limited appeal to black voters and what he views as the state's comfort level with historic income disparities between working and upper classes.

Clemson University sociologist Bess Rothenberg, who teaches a course on "Race, Ethnicity and Class," agrees that in rural parts of the state a "plantation mentality" lingers.

"So often you'll see trailer, trailer, trailer, then a huge expanse of land and a big house," she said. "The people living in the big house can see from their window how the other 90 percent live. It's almost like it's set up that way."

Gov. Mark Sanford argues his proposal to convert constitutional officers from elected to appointed positions could speed up the "diversity" process by leaving selection in the hands of governors rather than voters.

But Sanford's Republican Party has never nominated a black candidate for state office, at least in the years since the civil rights movement. Black Republican Earl Brown ran in the 2002 Republican primary for adjutant general but lost to Stan Spears by a margin of three to one.

Starletta Hariston, a Beaufort County Council member from Hilton Head, and Tim Scott, chairman of the Charleston County Council, are among the few black Republican office holders in South Carolina, according to Luke Byars, executive director of the state Republican Party. But he said the party has asked county Republican organizations to actively recruit minorities as possible candidates.

"I wouldn't be surprised to see a black Republican candidate running for the legislature in the next election," Byars said.

Sen. Clementa Pinckney, D-Ridgeland, said Sanford's re-structuring plan has the potential to accelerate progress but added it's important to base expectations on Sanford's hiring record so far.

"It is good to say what you would do and could do but better to show me what you have done," Pinckney said.

Sanford appointed two blacks to run Cabinet-level agencies, the same number as his Demo-crat predecessor. One of the two appointees, Jim McClain, resigned several weeks ago amid questions about his stated qualifications.

Rep. Gilda Cobb-Hunter, D-Orangeburg, noted Sanford's top aides -- his chief of staff, two deputy chiefs of staff, and his two senior policy advisors are all white and male.

However, Sanford's chief legal counsel and two lower level staff department directors are black.

Sanford said recruiting qualified blacks who share his conservative philosophy to head state agencies proved somewhat challenging.

"In some cases, we found very talented African-Americans who couldn't afford the pay cut," he said. "They were first generation wealth creators, the first person to go off to college in their family.

"You almost have to have economic advancement before you can have political advancement," Sanford said.

Contact Karen Addy at (803) 256-3800 and mailto:kaddy@heraldonline.com

Black officials statistics
Source: The Joint Center for Policy and Economic Studies • Number of black office holders nationwide in 1970: 1,469. • Number of black office holders nationwide in 2000: 9,040. • Number of elected statewide officials in the United States in 2000: 473. • Number of black elected statewide officials in the United States in 2000: 8.