If State Superintendent of Education Inez Tenenbaum decides to run for the U.S. Senate in 2004, can she win?

The answer is "yes" -- but it'll be tough.

Given how the state's political landscape has changed to favor Republicans the last 10 years, it'll never be easy for a Democrat to win a statewide race for governor or Senate.

However, if there's any Democrat who can pull it off, it's Tenenbaum, the biggest vote-getter in the state the last two elections.

If she wants to serve in the Senate, this will be as good a time as ever. It'll be an open seat, assuming incumbent Democrat Fritz Hollings doesn't run again.

"Without a doubt, Inez would be the strongest candidate the Democrats could offer," says Benedict College political scientist Glenda Suber.

Hollings hasn't decided whether he'll run. He is telling friends it's up to his wife, Peatsy, who wants him to quit.

Tenenbaum will not offer for the Senate if Hollings runs.

Until Hollings decides, Tenenbaum is weighing the pros and cons of a Senate bid.

"By Labor Day I'll be finished with my deliberations one way or the other," she says. "I'm in very serious deliberations about it so I can make a good, informed decision."

Republicans seeking the nomination are U.S. Rep. Jim DeMint of Greenville, former Attorney General Charlie Condon of Sullivan's Island, Charleston businessman Thomas Ravenel, and Myrtle Beach Mayor Mark McBride.

A poll of state voters conducted for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee a couple of months ago showed both Hollings and Tenenbaum beating DeMint, the perceived GOP front-runner. Tenenbaum, however, had the stronger lead.

Having run three statewide races -- she once ran for lieutenant governor -- Tenenbaum would start the race with high name identification.

She also has a strong support base -- school teachers and women, who make up 56 percent of the registered voters in this state. One group that could be a swing vote would be professional white women, who tend to identify with the GOP but find Tenenbaum appealing.

Bill Moore, a political analyst with the College of Charleston, said the big unanswered question is whether Tenenbaum can transfer her popularity as education superintendent to a U.S. Senate race.

Is South Carolina ready to elect a woman to a top leadership position like governor or U.S. senator?

There are three women from Southern states serving in the U.S. Senate -- Kay Bailey Hutchison, a Republican from Texas; Mary Landrieu, a Democrat from Louisiana; and Blanche Lincoln, a Democrat from Arkansas.

South Carolina does not have a good history of electing women to statewide office. It ranks last among the 50 states in the number of women serving in public office.

Tenenbaum is receiving lots of encouragement -- from Democrats and Republicans -- to run.

She has proven to be one Democrat who can attract GOP support. She twice carried Lexington County, one of the most Republican counties in the nation.

She's also a superb campaigner. She knows how to work a crowd and make an individual feel important.

Tenenbaum also is smart, reasonable, and tough-minded. Beneath that sweet veneer is one tough politician. She has all the ingredients a candidate would want.

Right now, she seems poised to take the leap. She'll be a force to contend with.

But that one nagging question remains. Can she transfer her popularity as education superintendent to a race for the U.S. Senate?

There's only one way for Tenenbaum to know for sure -- run.