Support for Kerry surges in key states

The bandwagon is starting to roll for U.S. Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts.

Impressed by his sweep of the Democratic presidential contest in the first two states to vote, Iowa and New Hampshire, Democrats nationwide appear ready to rally behind him because he looks more like a winner against President Bush than anyone else in the field.

Kerry’s support entering this pivotal week was surging in many of the seven states that vote Tuesday.

To be sure, any of several rivals still could defeat Kerry in selected states next Tuesday or beyond. Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean vowed to resurrect his faltering campaign when it turns to more liberal terrain in the industrial Midwest and Pacific Northwest. He promised to carry his campaign on to the party’s July convention in Boston.

But with stunning swiftness, a consensus started to emerge in recent days among many Democrats that Kerry should and would win the nomination. Regardless of their passion for Kerry, they started to find unity in their passionate dislike for Bush and hunger for a champion to oppose him.

“We want to get it over with early, get a nominee and go (beat) George Bush,” said Dick Harpootlian, a veteran Democratic strategist and former chairman of the S.C. Democratic Party.

“If he doesn’t stumble, Kerry is likely to get the nomination,” added Betty Glad, a political scientist and scholar of political psychology at USC.

“This bandwagon is starting much earlier than usual.”

The power of the bandwagon effect was evident throughout the seven states that vote Tuesday — Arizona, Delaware, Missouri, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma and South Carolina.

Just weeks ago, Kerry was an afterthought in all those states. He had not visited them and could not afford advertising to get his message to Democrats there. In South Carolina, where he kicked off his campaign with a September speech in front of an aircraft carrier, he sunk to the bottom of polls.

Democrats everywhere started thinking better of him after he won Iowa. When he followed by winning New Hampshire, he started looking like a winner nationally. That stood out in a campaign where none of the candidates except Dean has created strong bonds with followers.

It was not Kerry’s health care proposal that set him apart from rivals such as Dean, retired Gen. Wesley Clark of Arkansas or Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina. They have similar proposals. Nor was it his plan to raise taxes on the wealthy. Most want that as well.

It was not even that Kerry served in combat in Vietnam. So did Clark.

Kerry stood out because fellow Democrats in Iowa and New Hampshire thought he looked like he would be a strong candidate against Bush.

“There is no strong emotional commitment to Kerry. The emotion that is there is all anti-Bush,” said Glad.

Polls documented the immediate Kerry surge across the map:

• In Arizona, Kerry leaped into a 3-to-2 lead over Clark.

• In Delaware, Kerry opened a nearly 2-to-1 lead over Sen. Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut, who has aggressively courted Democrats there.

• In Missouri, suddenly up for grabs with the withdrawal of native son Rep. Dick Gephardt, Kerry jumped to a 3-to-1 lead over Edwards.

• In North Dakota, he took a 2-to-1 lead over Clark.

• And in South Carolina, site of the first primary in the South, Kerry pulled into a statistical dead heat with next-door neighbor Edwards.

“He seems obviously to be the front-runner,” said Benjamin Franklin, a retired English professor from Columbia who attended a Kerry campaign event Friday. “He seems the best chance that Democrats have. And probably as a result of that, in addition to what I saw today, I’ll probably support and vote for him.”

Harpootlian said: “Kerry is moving up in South Carolina. If Kerry beats Edwards here, he’s the presumptive nominee.”

Kerry, of course, still would need to win primaries and caucuses for weeks to come. Tuesday’s votes in seven states will award just 269 delegates, only about 12 percent of the 2,162 needed to secure the nomination.

Dean this week all but pulled out of the seven states voting Tuesday, deciding he could not afford to advertise in culturally or ideologically moderate-to-conservative states where his antiwar, anti-establishment message likely would not sell anyway.

Instead, he pulled back to three states where he hoped his message would resonate with more liberal voters: Michigan and Washington, which vote Feb. 7, and Wisconsin, which votes Feb. 17.

Yet even in Michigan, where Kerry’s push for greater fuel efficiency in cars makes him suspect to autoworkers, Democrats seem poised to rally around him.

“Kerry has an edge here,” said Bill Ballenger, editor of the Inside Michigan Politics newsletter. “We’re following the pack. Dean led here until Iowa. Now Kerry is in the lead.”

Two events could further help Kerry in Michigan. One is the endorsement from popular Gov. Jennifer Granholm, rolled out Saturday. That could give Kerry another boost. The other is how well Kerry does Tuesday. Victories in a majority of states Tuesday could give the bandwagon more speed; unexpected losses could slow it and cause other Democrats to take a second look at Kerry.

“The real question,” said Ballenger, “is whether it’s inexorably trending toward Kerry in a way that can’t be stopped.”

Knight Ridder Newspapers correspondent James Kuhnhenn contributed to this report.