The contest to be the next speaker of the S.C. House — already labeled “chaotic” by one former candidate — is expected to become even more intense now that the current officeholder plans to leave.

For the three Republicans seeking the post, Wednesday’s announcement that Speaker David Wilkins is likely leaving to become U.S. ambassador to Canada marked the official beginning of a campaign that some say has been in swing for two years.

“Everything will intensify,” now that Wilkins has made public the worst-kept secret in the General Assembly, said Rep. Harry Cato, R-Greenville.

Cato had been the fourth candidate for Wilkins’ gavel, but dropped out this week. He joked he should have started campaigning two years ago, as he says some other candidates have done.

Those other candidates — Judiciary Committee chairman Jim Harrison of Columbia, Ways and Means Committee chairman Bobby Harrell of Charleston and Speaker Pro Tem Doug Smith of Spartanburg — have worked the room, seeking commitments from Republicans and Democrats.

Rumors of back-room deals and overt and covert threats of retaliation have been as common as rumors of Wilkins’ impending departure.

That constant murmur and scuttlebutt has thrown the House into “chaos,” Cato said, as jockeying for position in the speaker’s race has eclipsed the work of the body.

“Last week, it actually was a little subdued,” Cato said. “After I got out, it really cranked up. Actually, it is at an all-time high. If you watch, members are working the floor, people who were committed to me, their cover is gone.”

Wilkins said he will meet with the three Republican candidates today to discuss ground rules for the race and the selection process.

Rep. James Smith, D-Richland, who is supporting Harrison, said the race has devolved into “a flurry of threats, accusations, cross-accusations, cross-threats — and at every angle.

“The race has gotten lost in the thorns. Members are trying to wander through without getting stuck.”

The speaker has great influence over everything from committee appointments to what legislation gets considered. Lawmakers who back the wrong candidate could find themselves on the outs with the new speaker.

No speaker’s election will be held until Wilkins officially resigns, which would not happen until he is confirmed by the U.S. Senate. If that does not happen until after the Legislature adjourns in early June, House members would come back into special session just to elect a new speaker.

Rep. Todd Rutherford, D-Richland, said Wilkins’ departure and the race to succeed him “is probably the biggest thing since I’ve been up here.”

It is difficult to say which candidate has the most commitments from colleagues, Rutherford said.

“People say, ‘You’re with me, against me, or lying to me,’” he said.

Generally, House members said Wednesday that Harrell and Harrison appear to be ahead of Smith, but it is unclear whether Harrell or Harrison has an overall lead.

Rep. Dan Cooper, R-Anderson, said House members will pledge their votes based on several factors.

“They start out with friendships or committee alignment,” Cooper said. “They look at who has the best temperament. It will eventually shake out.”

Cooper said, for instance, he stands to move up on the Ways and Means Committee if Harrell leaves the chairmanship to become speaker. The same would go for Judiciary Committee members should Harrison win.

Cooper said he’s voting for Harrell.

Rep. Doug Jennings, D-Marlboro, is also a candidate, but realizes a Democrat cannot win in a House split 74-50 in favor of the Republicans.

“I do think a band of unified moderates can stand together and affect this race for the good of South Carolina,” Jennings said.

Jennings believes Democrats can get behind the candidate who promises to “level the playing field.” That means allowing Democrats a spot on conference committees, more leadership opportunities and a more fair split on major committees.

Jennings said he does not know which candidate will do that. “I don’t think there is one yet; it’s too early to tell.”

Reach Gould Sheinin at (803) 771-8658 or asheinin@thestate.com.