FORT COLLINS, Colo. - Hurricane researcher William
Gray on Monday forecast two hurricanes, one of them one major, for
the rest of October - nearly double the long-term average for the
month.
Gray and fellow researcher Philip Klotzbach of Colorado State
University said the likelihood of a major hurricane crossing the
U.S. coastline is 15 percent, more than double the long-term average
of 6 percent.
"Unfortunately, the very active season we have seen to this point
is not yet over," Gray said.
Gray and Klotzbach said the likelihood of a named storm hitting
the U.S. coast in October is 49 percent, compared with an average of
29 percent from 1950 to 2000. The probability of a hurricane making
landfall in the U.S. is 21 percent, compared with the long-term
average of 15 percent, they said.
Through the end of September, the 2005 season has had nine
hurricanes, five of them major, and 17 named storms. The 50-year
average is 5.9 hurricanes, 2.3 of them major, and 9.6 named storms
for an entire season.
Three of this year's major hurricanes - Dennis, Katrina and Rita
- made landfall. Ophelia hit the North Carolina coast as a Category
1 hurricane although its eye remained just offshore.
Gray and Klotzbach said factors behind this year's active season
include warmer-than-average Atlantic Ocean surface temperatures and
lower-than-normal sea level pressures, lower-than-average vertical
wind shears and moister conditions in the lower and middle
atmosphere.
They said they do not attribute the active season to
human-induced global warming. Instead, they cited "long-period
natural climate alterations that historical and paleo-climate
records show to have occurred many times in the past."
ON THE NET
CSU hurricane forecast: http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts
