Larry Hannigan, left, and Harold Crawford, both members of the Aiken County Democratic Party. Ron Cockerille/Staff

Race gets swing voters

Biracial coalition may thwart Bush

AIKEN - While most of the after-action punditry about last week's South Carolina primary has focused on what it means for Sens. John Kerry or John Edwards, some political professionals, such as Bruce Ransom, a political science professor at Clemson University, and Blease Graham, a professor of political science at the University of South Carolina, have used a wider-angled lens.

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They have opted to concentrate on what the results signal for the general election contest against President Bush and the apparent rejuvenation of the Democratic Party's old biracial coalition of blacks and whites worried about the economy and anxious to nominate someone who can beat the president.

These men cite the unexpectedly high turnout in a predominantly Republican state: more than 280,000 voters. It's a respectable number, although far short of the 576,000 that showed up for the 2000 GOP primary fight between President Bush and U.S. Sen. John McCain, of Arizona.

These experts also point to the ability of Mr. Kerry, a U.S. senator from Massachusetts, and Mr. Edwards, a U.S. senator from North Carolina, to attract more than 70 percent of South Carolina's sizable black vote, despite the Rev. Al Sharpton's presence on the ballot and his blunt appeal to voters to cast their ballots along lines of racial self-interest.

Finally, they point to Mr. Edwards' ability to attract whites in South Carolina's Upstate region, near his birthplace of Seneca, S.C. These voters included Reagan Democrats, independents and disgruntled Republicans, according to exit polls.

This doesn't mean South Carolina won't be Bush Country come November. But it does show the president has some considerable cracks in his Southern base that he has to patch.

It also indicates Democrats are again building the type of coalition that could make them competitive in the fall. They also might be able to pick off some crucial battleground states, such as Georgia, Louisiana, Tennessee, Arkansas and Florida.

All this should be enough to strike fear in the heart of a sitting Republican president who won election only by a few thousand hanging Florida chads, the experts say.

"It's the biracial coalition plus," Dr. Ransom said. "You've got black and white Democrats coming together plus independents, swing voters and some Republicans willing to give the party a look because of worries about the economy.

"It's a model that can be applied elsewhere in the region," he said.

Dr. Graham sees the same potential. However, he sounds a more cautionary note.

"You have the potential of blacks and whites voting together on economic issues," he said. "But it's a long way between now and November, and the economy could turn around by then."

Martin Regalia, the chief economist for the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, said the national economy already has started to sweeten after three years of recession and is on the verge of creating jobs that will begin knocking down a national unemployment rate that has fallen from a high of 6.1 percent to the latest 5.7 percent posted in December.

Reach Jim Nesbitt at (803) 648-1395 or jim.nesbitt@augustachronicle.com

--From the Monday, February 9, 2004 printed edition of the Augusta Chronicle