Imagine $100 for a barrel of oil.

Unthinkable a few years ago, economists and other financial experts now say that number is possible, and they are preparing forecasts of how it would affect the energy, transportation, automotive, retail and other industries.

They are trying to predict how much more it would cost to heat and cool a house, drive to soccer practice, order a pizza, go on vacation and run a business.

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"The continued steady rise in oil prices over the past three years, and a fear of potential supply disruptions, real or imagined, has created an environment where a triple-digit oil price in the near term is not unimaginable," said John Piecuch, a spokesman for Standard & Poor's.

The company, a division of The McGraw-Hill Cos., is not forecasting oil prices will rise to $100 a barrel. But in light of heightened worldwide demand and war and political instability in major oil-producing nations, S&P economists and analysts believe "it is prudent" to consider the broad implications of such prices.

Although automobiles, airlines and some retailers would be harmed, what would amount to a 40 percent increase in oil prices would not portend economic disaster, the credit-rating agency said.

Some industries, such as oil, would prosper in general from higher prices and would see no negative credit effects -- although one result could be more merger and acquisition activity, the agency said.

Even at today's oil prices, small business owners such as Chip Hamilton of Powdersville are feeling the effects.

Record crude-oil prices, which have surged past $70 a barrel, have driven up the average price of gasoline to the point Hamilton has raised prices for his fishing-boat charters at Lake Hartwell for the first time since 1995.

"We basically have been eating all these (gasoline price) increases, and just this year, beginning in July, we've had to increase our rates $50 a day for the most part just to cover that," said Hamilton, 38, a fishing guide for 12 years.

He spent $9,000 last year to cover the cost of oil and gas for his 22-foot boat, not counting additional expenses for the truck he uses.

"On the days we really have to hunt fish down, every time we hit the throttle on our boat, we can just watch our profit start diminishing," Hamilton said.

But he insists the higher gas prices won't affect "my clients having a good trip" because it would be bad for business.

Hamilton also has noticed a decline in vacationers at the lake this year, meaning fewer fishing charters.

"They may still come to the lake," he said, "but if they're coming to the lake to kind of hang out at the campgrounds or whatever, they're not going to spend that extra $200, $300 to go fishing because it cost so much to get here."

"High gasoline prices are no longer viewed by most consumers as a temporary phenomenon," and oil at $100 a barrel translates into roughly $4 per gallon for gasoline, said S&P credit analyst William Wetreich.

David Wyss, S&P's chief economist, said last week in a telephone conference with reporters and analysts that while the credit-rating agency isn't forecasting oil at $100 a barrel, the figure "hasn't been picked completely randomly either."

"If Iran drops out of the oil production markets, that would result in a price in the $100 range," he said.

Such prices could undermine U.S. economic growth next year, shaving 1.5 percentage points off the real gross domestic product by the end of next year and bringing growth down as low as 1 percent, he said.

"The good news is we don't have a recession; the bad news is it is a very significant slowdown in growth and some industries will be affected a lot more than others," Wyss said.

The government said Friday the economy's growth slowed sharply in the second quarter, to just 2.5 percent, as consumers tightened their belts and spending on home building declined.

The latest gross domestic product report released by the Commerce Department showed that the overall pace of economic activity between April and June was less than half that of the January-to-March quarter, when the economy moved along at a 5.6 percent annual rate, the fastest in 21/2 years.

Gross domestic product measures the value of all goods and services produced within the United States and is considered the best barometer of the country's economic standing.

Wetreich, meanwhile, expects consumer spending in the second half of the year to be "less favorable" than it has been, putting further pressure on retail credit ratings.

And that's without expectations for oil rising to $100 a barrel, he said.

"Any potential spike in oil costs to $100 per barrel will likely hit retailers hardest that cater to lower-income consumers, such as discounters and fast-food restaurants," Wetreich said.

"The worst case would be a sudden spike just before the Christmas shopping season," he said. "On the other hand, the best case would be a measured increase over a period of time, allowing consumers to adjust gradually."

Consumer spending, he said, "has held up surprisingly well so far, despite the rising energy and interest costs and low savings levels. Nonetheless, these factors are beginning to have an impact on consumer confidence, and are slowing retail sales growth."

A rise in oil prices also wouldn't mean good things for the U.S. automotive industry, said Robert Schulz, an automotive analyst for S&P.

Oil at $100 a barrel, and related increases in gasoline prices, "can only be considered a serious negative for the U.S.-based automakers as well as their suppliers," Schulz said. "This is clearly an industry segment that does not need any more bad news."

A shift "away from large, very profitable SUVs was already well under way last year, even before gas prices really began to rise," and the impact has been "extremely negative" for the credit profiles of Ford, GM and a number of suppliers, he said.

Over the first six months of 2006, SUV sales were down about 14 percent compared with the same period last year, while passenger car sales were up 2.4 percent, he said.

Now there are signs that sales in the full-size pickup truck market, "another important segment for profitability for the domestic automakers," could be softening in the wake of higher gas prices, Schulz said.

Full-size pickup trucks are down about 11 percent for the first six months of 2006, he said.

"It seems clear that $100 oil would add a much sharper point and perhaps a faster pace to those challenges," he said.

Similarly, S&P analysts feel the long-beleaguered airlines would face serious consequences if oil prices rose sharply and stayed high.

Most carriers are too weak financially to undertake hedging of fuel costs, and they are still struggling with fuel costs that have climbed 140 percent since 2003, the analysts said.

Airline analyst Philip Baggaley said fuel accounts for about one-third of the total operating expenses for airlines, one-quarter for railroads and lesser amounts for trucking, shipping and other transportation companies.

U.S. airlines have seen fuel prices rise dramatically over the past several years. Jet fuel averaged about 80 cents a gallon from 2000 through 2003 but rose to $1.50 in 2005 and $1.95 through May of this year, he said.

"Historically, competitive conditions -- particularly in the U.S. domestic market -- have caused fares to fall over time," Baggaley said. "However, over the past year, this has changed dramatically. Strong demand, reflecting the healthy economy, and reduced supply, from bankrupt airlines grounding planes, have permitted significant fare increases and record load factors."

"A fuel price rise to $100-a-barrel oil would drive costs beyond what could be recovered in higher airfares," he said. "The airlines would be caught in a squeeze, with costs going up and passenger demand faltering in a slowing economy."