| Edwards leads in South Carolina, Kerry a strong second |
| A new InsiderAdvantage/Marketing Workshop survey of 500 likely voters in the Feb. 3 South Carolina presidential preference primary shows John Edwards leading the field with 20 percent. John Kerry is second with 14 percent, and Wesley Clark and Howard Dean each have 10 percent. The poll was conducted for WLTX-TV in Columbia, South Carolina, WXIA-TV in Atlanta and The Morris News Service. The Savannah Morning News and the Augusta Chronicle, two Georgia newspapers, both also serve readers in neighboring South Carolina. Morris Communications has a business affiliation with InsiderAdvantage. The poll was conducted Jan. 23-25 among 500 likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent. The poll is weighted for age, race, gender and party affiliation. Here are the results: Question: If the Democratic preference primary election were held today, would you vote for? John Edwards (20 percent) John Kerry (14 percent) Wesley Clark (10 percent) Howard Dean (10 percent) Al Sharpton (4 percent) Joseph Lieberman (2 percent) Dick Gephardt* (1 percent) Carol Mosley-Braun* (0 percent) Dennis Kucinich (0 percent) Some other candidate (3 percent) Don’t know (36 percent) (*Gephardt and Mosley-Braun are listed on the ballot, even though both have dropped out of the presidential race.) Following is an analysis of the polling results from Matt Towery, InsiderAdvantage chairman and a nationally syndicated columnist: “These results are not surprising, including the 36 percent undecided. Southern primaries are noted for having a high undecided voter demographic, right through the final days leading up to the vote. But often a large portion of those who say they are undecided never actually go to the polls, regardless of how insistent they are about planning to vote. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Keys: How extesive will participation be among non-Democrats and African Americans? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- “It is obvious that both Kerry and Edwards have made big gains since our last poll of South Carolina, conducted as part of our pre-Iowa Survey of the South (see below). What should be troubling to other candidates is that Kerry has put little effort into South Carolina prior to this survey – including no paid TV – and yet he finds himself in second place. “The two candidates who have suffered the biggest declines are Dean and Clark. Although Dean led in our pre-Iowa survey of South Carolina, he now appears to be struggling to survive. Clark, who was viewed at one time as the strongest “moderate” Democratic candidate, has been eclipsed by Edwards’ meteoric rise. Edwards’ surge is likely the result of his strong Iowa showing, and the fact that voters in South Carolina are beginning to focus on the race and on the fact that Edwards has South Carolina ties. “One critical thing to watch in South Carolina will be the degree to which those who aren’t Democrats choose to participate in the primary. We suspect that level of participation may be higher than some might have originally thought. A second key question is whether African-American voters will play a powerful role in determining the ultimate winner. We expect Al Sharpton to likely rise in the final numbers, but we also anticipate that a substantial portion of the African-American vote ultimately will break in the direction of one of the front-running candidates." Here are the results of the previous InsiderAdvantage/Marketing Workshop poll of South Carolina, released Jan. 15 as part of our Survey of the South poll. This poll was conducted Jan. 8-12, 2004. It surveyed 300 likely Democratic primary voters in South Carolina, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 6 percent. Question: If the Democratic preference primary election were held today, would you vote for? Howard Dean (12 percent) Wesley Clark (9 percent) John Edwards (9 percent) Dick Gephardt (6 percent) Joseph Lieberman (5 percent) Al Sharpton (5 percent) Carol Mosley-Braun (2 percent) John Kerry (1 percent) Dennis Kucinich (1 percent) Undecided (50 percent) InsiderAdvantage is a top source of opinion surveys and information analysis. Known for uncanny accuracy and penetrating insight based on the results, InsiderAdvantage polls appear regularly in print and broadcast media, including CNN, FoxNews, The Washington Post, The New York Post and many others. InsiderAdvantage was the only national independent pollster to correctly predict the outcome of the Iowa caucuses within the statistical margin of error. |