John Edwards is emerging as the candidate to beat in the South Carolina Democratic presidential primary.

This is not to suggest he has this first-in-the-South contest sewn up. Far from it. Almost half the voters remain undecided.

But among the 10 candidates seeking the Democratic nomination, the 50-year-old North Carolina senator is the only one showing any forward movement. The others either have faded or remain stuck in neutral.

According to a recent survey by the American Research Group, Edwards drew 16 percent among likely Democratic voters. His closest rivals — U.S. Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut and retired Army General Wesley Clark — follow with 7 percent. Forty-two percent remain undecided.

Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean gets 6 percent, followed by U.S. Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts, U.S. Rep. Dick Gephardt of Missouri and New York civil rights activist Al Sharpton, each with 5 percent. U.S. Sen. Bob Graham of Florida, former U.S. Sen. Carol Moseley Braun of Illinois and U.S. Rep. Dennis Kucinich of Ohio barely register.

These numbers jibe with those found in a poll taken by the Global Strategy Group for Edwards. The Tar Heel senator led with 23 percent of the likely primary vote. Clark was second with 13 percent.

Both surveys were taken in late September. As recently as August, Edwards was drawing only about 5 percent in S.C. polls, well back in the pack.

Edwards’ goal from day one has been to own South Carolina, to make this his state. That’s why he has refused to share a platform with any of his rivals here since the first candidates’ debate in May.

Instead, he has made several appearances in the state, and his television ads appear almost daily.

More and more, South Carolina’s Feb. 3 primary is shaping up as the defining contest. It will likely determine who is eliminated in the first cut that happens early in every primary season.

To make sure he is not among those to vanish, Edwards has set what he believes are “realistic expectations” for the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary — in Iowa, fourth; New Hampshire, third.

Edwards’ campaign is confident the senator can win South Carolina if he meets those goals.

An Iowa poll taken by Westhill Partners for Gephardt shows Edwards making “significant progress” in that state. He now is in fourth place with 13 percent, up from 6 percent. New Hampshire presents a greater challenge for him. He trails far behind in fifth place, tied with Clark and Graham at 2 percent.

Backers have urged Edwards to focus more on Iowa and South Carolina, where he has made gains in the polls.

He has stepped up his criticism of some of his rivals as part of what advisers insist is a long-held strategy: Introduce Edwards to voters in the summer and early fall, then distinguish him from the pack in the late fall and winter.

Edwards says he is encouraged by the progress he’s making in South Carolina, his native state. But he’s not taking anything for granted.

“I’m going to keep campaigning very hard here in South Carolina,” he said during a campaign stop in Columbia last week. “It will be competitive here, and I know I’m going to have to work very hard to do well.”

Edwards believes his Southern heritage will resonate with S.C. voters.

“I understand the values and principles that most South Carolinians believe in. I have a natural understanding, an intuitive level about what they care about. And, because of that, my ideas about how to solve those problems will connect with them.”

And how about that Southern accent? Does it help?

“I’ll leave that to you,” Edwards laughs.

It certainly doesn’t hurt him in South Carolina.