He seems undaunted by his next big challenge, which is to pit a strong candidate against popular Gov. Mark Sanford. The incumbent, whose favorability ratings are off the charts across the state, appears to be perfectly positioned to walk to a second term in 2006.
But Erwin, who notes that Democrats held their own in state House and Senate races this year, reminds people that former Gov. David Beasley's reelection chances looked good after two years in office. But in his third year, things started to self-destruct, which led to a 1998 victory by Democrat Jim Hodges.
"You're hearing more and more across the state -- and not just from Democrats -- from people who are saying what has this guy (Sanford) done? What has been accomplished? And the answer is nothing -- or next to nothing -- but a lot of talk."
With a GOP-controlled House and Senate, Erwin says many are amazed by Sanford's lack of legislative accomplishments. To date, the governor has had no major legislative victories and several well-publicized spats with lawmakers. Many, however, say the relationship is maturing and predict Sanford to have a more coordinated and effective effort with his Republican colleagues in the coming legislative session.
"That should have been the perfect scenario to accomplish great things but instead after two years, it has been a scenario that has accomplished nothing," Erwin said. He adds that if people across the state separate their personal view of Sanford (a "nice guy") from his record as a leader, Democrats could have a big opening in two years.
"While the governor is extremely popular, I think he has alienated people in his own party," said Furman political science professor John Simpkins. "There are a few voices on the Democratic side who could offer some challenge, including for disaffected Republicans."
Leading Democrats met in the last week to discuss strategic problems and consider possible candidates to challenge Sanford. With news that state Superintendent Inez Tenenbaum has decided to run in 2006 for the job she holds, many party leaders and others across the state are discussing possible Democratic candidates. Among the names that crop up are:
At this point, only Clyburn would be considered a household name. But political observers know two years in politics is a long time. Who, for example, would have considered Jim Hodges to be a household name two years before the 1998 election?
Sanford has the definite and clear edge for 2006, but with coordination and organization, Democrats could make the race more than a cakewalk.