If Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry maintains his momentum from a late-charging victory in the Iowa caucuses Monday night with a New Hampshire primary triumph next week, he'll become the obvious front- runner. If former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean rebounds from his third-place finish in Iowa to win New Hampshire, he can regain at least some of his now-lost front-runner status. Then again, if North Carolina Sen. John Edwards wins New Hampshire, he could make a front-runner claim of his own. If Gen. Wesley Clark wins New Hampshire, he could do the same.
Those are only a few of the "ifs" political pundits are now using to preface their predictions on the outcome of the Democratic presidential nomination. But it's no longer "iffy" that come Feb. 3, the national political focus will be on South Carolina, just as state party leaders have been predicting all along.
Regardless of the outcome in New Hampshire, the South Carolina primary, one of seven scheduled for Feb. 3, will be a crucial test because it is the first in the South. Party leaders touting its importance note that the state is not only both urban and rural, but will provide the first good test of the candidates' strength in the African-American community.
The primary also may test the candidates' more general appeal since there is no party registration in the state. Those who consider themselves Republicans, Democrats and independents alike can go to the polls, and now may be more likely to do so in view of the increased publicity about the primary's importance.
So, in less than two weeks, voters in our state evidently will have a lot to say about which Democrat runs in November against President George Bush, who, it should be remembered, took a big step toward winning the 2000 GOP nomination by winning the S.C. primary.
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