In spring, Dems' fancy lightly turns to 2006

e-mail this story Dan Hoover • South holds Senate key in November (05/02/04) • Next Campbell moving politically (04/18/04) • DeMint, Inglis are friends, not clones (04/10/04) • 'Vindicated' Beasley dogged by protesters (04/04/04) • In spring, Dems' fancy lightly turns to 2006 (03/27/04)

He referred to Greenville adman and still-new state party chairman Joe Erwin.

It's possible that "the Erwin era" could involve more than running the party.

Running for governor, maybe.

We're approaching the midway point in the term of a new governor, at least in legislative sessions if not months, a major yardstick for measuring a governor's strength.

It's a milestone that triggers a rite of passage, particularly among state legislators from the opposition party, the usual wellspring of candidates.

The reflection

They get up in the morning, look in the mirror and some see the reflection of a governor looking back at them.

Why should 2004 be any different?

Here are the names being talked about, quietly, in Democratic circles:

Erwin, 47, president of Erwin-Penland Advertising Agency, who recently sold his company, although he remains with the new ownership.

Doug Jennings, 47, attorney and seven-term state House member from Bennettsville.

Tommy Moore, 53, businessman and 24-year Senate veteran from Clearwater in Aiken County.

James Smith, 36, attorney and four-term House member from Columbia.

Frank Willis, 62, mayor of Florence and owner of a construction company.

It's a time for playing it coy, of not appearing too eager. Often, the downplaying is sincere, even though the idea is germinating.

Erwin

"I have no plans at this time," Erwin says.

Note the qualifier, "at this time."

You will not be a candidate?

"Well, I can't predict the future," Erwin answers, then adds, "I really can't see that happening. But, yes, people have mentioned it to me, and like any human being, it's kind of flattering.

"But flattering is not a serious consideration. I do not have a plan for it at all right now. Would I consider it in the future? Maybe."

Putting his chairman's hat back on, Erwin said the party's brass would like to know by summer who is genuinely interested.

"Let's assume I'm not the candidate. I want to know who on my team is going to run, look at their electability, considerations, including finances, geography.

"Where are they from? How much money can they raise? What are their positions on key issues? How do they look on stage versus (Republican Gov.) Mark Sanford, who's a good campaigner? And what can we do to help them?"

Jennings

Among the group, it's Jennings who sounds the closest to candidacy.

"It's in the back of my mind," he said.

"I think our party and our state have reached the point where we're seeing what we get with extremism and want a (Democratic) candidate who can pull folks together and govern from the center."

"I would consider it."

Jennings' thinking has progressed to the point that he figures he would do what Jim Hodges did in 1997 — resign from the House to begin organizing and raising money.

Moore

Moore, a former Democratic National Committee member, said having his name bandied about is "pleasing to the ego," but he's focused on the current session and re-election in November.

Now, if he's re-elected, "we'll let the future take care of itself."

One advantage senators have is that they serve four-year terms, running for re-election at a governor's midway point, so they don't have to put their seats at risk to seek higher office.

Smith

The boyish-looking Smith says he's pushing Moore and Jennings, "either of whom would provide the leadership our state needs." But he sounds like his bigger interest is in fellow House member Jennings.

But does he have any interest of his own?

Long pause ... Really long pause.

Chuckle: "My interest is in District 72."

Is that an absolute 'no'?

"You never answer with an absolute no."

He goes on. And on, why he prefers someone else.

"I'm probably overexplaining," Smith agrees.

Willis

To Willis, running for governor "is an interest I've had for some time. Nothing's materialized. I've done nothing to make it happen."

It's in the back of his mind, with an awareness he'll "just have to make the decision at some point to say yes or no."

"My problem is that I'm down here in Florence and name recognition would be a real problem. It would take quite a while, quite a lot of effort and money, to create that name recognition. Frankly, I don't know if I can raise the kind of money necessary."

Each of the potential candidates acknowledges that the clock is ticking, especially with an incumbent governor who's piling up re-election cash, if not a string of legislative accomplishments.

Jennings sees Jan. 1 as "the drop-dead date" for Democrats to crank up.

Erwin sees at least "a year and a half campaign, and some people would argue it's a two-year campaign."

Smith agrees that there's "no question you need to start soon."

Tick-tock, tick-tock ...

Dan Hoover's column appears on Sunday. He can be reached at (864) 298-4883 or toll-free at (800) 274-7879, extension 4883, and by fax at (864) 298-4395.