Computer models that show the expected path of storms can't seem to agree on where Jeanne is headed over the next several days.

"It's a very complicated situation right now," said meteorologist Paul Yura of the National Weather Service in Charleston.

The National Hurricane Center on Thursday expected Jeanne to move toward Charleston, but the projections shifted Friday to a path roughly parallel to Florida's coastline. A high-pressure ridge diving south out of Canada could push the storm toward Florida, or Jeanne might even stay away from the U.S. coast.

"I won't say we have a high amount of confidence right now," said National Hurricane Center meteorologist Chris Hennon.The difficulty forecasting the route is nothing new in a year of tricky steering-current weather driving the computers to distraction. Various models Friday had the high pressure turning the storm west, east out to sea or completely around. But they did agree the high would turn the storm.

For most of the day Friday, strong winds gusted to 35 mph near the South Carolina coast, but they should die down somewhat today. The weather service forecasts 15 mph winds with gusts possibly to 20 mph, but otherwise it should be late summer weather, with highs in the 80s and a 20 percent chance of rain in the afternoon.

The winds are from the remnants of Hurricane Ivan, which stalled over the southern Appalachians and was expected to drift slowly toward the coast. The storm had lights flickering and computers crashing across the Lowcountry and caused isolated power outages statewide, said SCE&G spokesman Eric Boomhower. Santee Cooper reported no outages.

If Jeanne follows Friday's earlier track track, the storm likely would regain strength and make landfall in Florida on Wednesday as a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. How much wind and rain would affect Charleston depends on how far north the storm goes.

"It definitely won't be a direct hit," Hennon said. "Just keep an eye on it. I wouldn't be too concerned right now."

Any strengthening also could be hampered by the high pressure system, shearing high atmosphere winds and possibly some atmospheric disruption left in Ivan's wake.

"I like the fact that it's a fairly weak system right now," Yura said, "but there always needs to be a sense of caution. There are no excuses anymore. We've been through four or five of these systems this year. Everyone should know the routine."

Jeanne lashed the Dominican Republic on Friday with wind and rain that triggered mudslides and collapsed walls before it weakened to a tropical depression. Seven people were killed across the Caribbean.

A Dominican man was crushed to death by a falling palm tree, and another died from a heart attack when he couldn't get to a hospital because of the storm, said Juan Luis German, spokesman for the National Emergency Committee.

Both deaths occurred in El Seybo, a town 80 miles northeast of Santo Domingo, the capital where the storm's torrential rain set off a landslide that smashed part of a house and killed an infant girl inside.

Thousands were stranded on rooftops of flooded homes in San Pedro de Macoris, where the River Soco burst its banks. Authorities were sending helicopters to rescue people in the northeastern fishing town, birthplace of baseball star Sammy Sosa.

The storm lashed nearby Puerto Rico with rain Friday. A severe thunderstorm in the south produced lightning and gusty winds that caused authorities to urge residents to stay inside sturdy buildings.

Officials in Puerto Rico urged islanders to boil their piped water -- prompting angry comments because half the 4 million residents were without running water for a third day Friday and 70 percent didn't have electricity.

The storm destroyed about 30 percent of coffee crops and 20 percent of the plantain and banana crops in Jayuya, a mountain town in central Puerto Rico, Mayor Jorge Gonzalez Otero said.

Jeanne brewed in the Caribbean the same day Hurricane Ivan passed into the Gulf of Mexico, leaving at least 70 dead across the Caribbean, half in devastated Grenada.

The Associated Press and Post and Courier writer Kyle Stock contributed to this report.

Click here to return to story:
http://www.charleston.net/stories/091804/sta_18jeanne.shtml