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Tommy Moore's decision to skip the state NAACP debate -- to be held in Augusta, Ga. -- may be the visible element, the tip of an iceberg that has troubled some Democrats for much of the year.

The Democratic gubernatorial challenger has already lost the endorsement of environmental activists, a smaller, but nonetheless important component of the Democratic coalition. Some Democrats are grumbling, publicly and privately, that his campaign has been so invisible as to be close to botching a golden opportunity.

And Republican Gov. Mark Sanford's decision to attend may not win him a cascade of African-American votes, but could alienate another element in his party, old-line conservatives.

Oddly enough, Moore's reason for not going is just what Sanford's conservative critics are saying.

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"I don't think it proper to have a debate for governor of South Carolina in Georgia before a group that is in an economic boycott of this state," Moore said last week. 'Horrible signal'

For Republican Sen. John Courson of Columbia, it's a "bad idea that sends a horrible signal and it's not going to sit well with anybody, going out of South Carolina to the convention of a group that's sponsoring an economic boycott of this state."

It may be a lose-lose situation for both.

Some politically influential black clergymen were dismayed at Moore's decision, and more.

To the Rev. Joe Darby, pastor of Morris Brown AME Church in Charleston, one of those must-do stops for any aspiring Democrat, Moore made a mistake "that I don't know will do him much good with the base.

"Had he simply gone, it would have been a blip on the radar screen, but by not going, he brought it into the limelight."

But more than that, Darby said, it reflected a Moore campaign he described as unnecessarily "cautious, measured and polite," a luxury challengers can't afford. "You've got to give folks a reason for not going with the status quo. You have to define yourself in order to do that."

And has Moore defined himself?

"Well, he's a Democrat," Darby answered, ruefully.

To Moore, it's been anything but that.

"It's not a matter of me beating up on somebody, it's me articulating the differences and the differences are very stark. We're trying our best to make sure of that."

"I understand the zeal and the vigor of Democrats, I'm anxious with them, but we have a campaign plan and we have to stick with it. 'Dissing' the base

State Sen. Darrell Jackson, D-Columbia, a businessman and pastor of Bible Way Church, said it was a mistake for Moore to refuse the NAACP invitation: "You don't diss the people who've always been good to you."

"The Republicans have taught us that you stick with your base and you don't alienate your base to try to expand your reach," Jackson said.

Democrats, particularly Southern Democrats, have to learn that (because) a lot of white Democrats are not comfortable with their base," he said. "It's not just Tommy Moore."

Jackson predicted that Sanford would increase his modest share of the black vote in November because he's been on black radio for weeks and he's been visiting black churches with regularity.

"Democrats are going to wake up the Wednesday after the election and wonder, 'What hit us?' " Jackson said. While Democrats may feed on Republican disgruntlement in Lexington and Aiken and other counties, "we lost out in other areas. That's a strong possibility.

"The NAACP thing is not that big, but it's the symbolism of it," Jackson said. "If he'd have gone, there's no story."

Dick Harpootlian, former state Democratic Party chairman, said Moore did the right thing in skipping the NAACP event and accused Sanford of "pandering to that crowd."

But, Harpootlian said that Moore might have let too much time slip by without holding Sanford to account.

"I would have stripped the bark off of Sanford. This guy is a walking disaster: Bond rating from AAA to AA, education in the toilet, unemployment third highest in the country. It goes on and on and on, and so far, we've not seen a single television ad bringing those points home," Harpootlian said. 'Bet the farm'While Moore may not have the money to be on the air for the remaining six weeks, "bet the farm now," Harpootlian urged. "Sanford is fragile, the public will rally, he'll have a campaign and be able to raise more money."

Despite Sanford's cash hoard, both spent and available, "he hasn't been able to put this thing away, but every day Tommy's not on TV plays into Sanford's hands," Harpootlian said

Moore's campaign has "been below the radar, that's the kindest thing I can say; it's not over, but it will be soon if he doesn't get up on TV -- defining Sanford."

Others see no harm to Moore.

"African-American voters are more likely to be forgiving of Moore than conservative white voters will be of Gov. Sanford," said John Simpkins, a professor at the Charleston School of Law.

The Rev. Caesar Richburg, pastor of Greenville's Allen Temple AME Church, said those issues of health care, quality employment and education far outweigh any argument over who went where.

"There's no pain on my part that he's chosen not to attend because when the dust settles and they come back across the river, those challenges are still hitting us in the face," Richburg said.