Vice President Dick Cheney comes to Rock
Hill on Friday to raise money for Republican congressional challenger
Ralph Norman, but his visit is more than a one-day photo-op, political
observers say.
Cheney's visit is another indication that incumbent Democrat John
Spratt of York faces almost eight months at the top of the national
GOP's hit list.
Republicans believe that the increasingly conservative 5th district
represents one of only a handful of opportunities nationally for their
party to pick up a seat now held by a Democrat, said Larry Sabato, a
University of Virginia political scientist.
"The Republicans think they have a shot at John Spratt," Sabato said.
"Dick Cheney does not make trips to longshot districts. This means the
Republicans believe they can win. But I still give the edge to Spratt."
GOP creeping closer
In 2004, unknown Republican challenger Albert Spencer of Gaffney--
who spent no money on his campaign -- took 37 percent of the votes cast
in the 14-county district and more than 40 percent in York County.
Perhaps with those numbers in mind, the Bush White House recruited
Norman for this year's run.
But whether Norman, a first-term state legislator, can beat Spratt,
who was first elected to Congress in 1982, remains to be seen, observers
say.
"That's the $64 million question," said Bruce Ransom, a political
science professor at Clemson University. "Spratt, to this point in a
state that clearly is locked into the Republican column, has been able
to defeat every candidate thrown against him."
That puts the odds against Republicans, Ransom said. Also, Republican
efforts to paint Spratt as a liberal who is out of step with South
Carolina have not resonated with district voters, he said.
"But on the other hand, if you keep coming back to the well to try to
draw some water, sooner or later you might hit a load," he said.
Despite Norman's limited political experience, there's something to
be said for selling him as a "fresh face," Ransom said. Norman's short
time in office could even be viewed as an asset for some voters eager
for a fresh start, he said.
"I wouldn't necessarily say because he's only got but a few years'
experience that automatically puts him at a disadvantage," Ransom said.
Former S.C. Democratic Party Chairman Dick Harpootlian said Norman's
relative inexperience makes him "the perfect candidate for Republicans."
"Anyone with any political experience wouldn't run against John
Spratt. He's (Norman) about to get his fanny spanked," Harpootlian said.
"Ignorance is bliss."
To combat Spratt's 23-year incumbency and name recognition,
Republicans want to raise a bucketful of money with Cheney's visit and
bring attention to Norman's candidacy. Norman, a Rock Hill developer, is
little known outside York County and almost no political record to
compare with Spratt.
"Norman clearly needs name identification if he hopes to have a
chance," Sabato said. "This brings the official blessing from the White
House."
Cheney's visit -- even on the heels of the CIA leak scandal and
Cheney's recent accidental shooting of a hunting buddy in Texas --
doesn't have any downside in Upstate South Carolina, where the gun
culture is strong, Sabato said.
"For Ralph Norman, there is no risk at all having Cheney come in,"
Sabato said.
A recent Gallup poll showed Cheney suffered no change in approval
ratings from the shooting incident, said Karen Kedrowski, chairwoman of
the Winthrop University political science department and an expert on
the interplay of politics and the media.
"That shows people who like Cheney still like him and people who have
no use for him still don't," she said. "The people Cheney will be
speaking to this week are those who are on his side and aren't likely to
vote for John Spratt anyway."
Calling on the party
Spratt, whom Sabato described as a "Southern moderate," typically
hasn't brought in Democratic heavy hitters to campaign for him in past
races because traditional party leaders are seen as too liberal to help
him in conservative South Carolina.
"John Edwards, for example, couldn't even win his home county in
North Carolina," Sabato said of the former senator who was the
Democratic vice presidential candidate in 2004.
To combat Republican star power and fundraising, Spratt might
consider bringing in former Virginia Gov. Mark Warner, a moderate,
Sabato said.
Since a close call in 1994 against Larry Bigham, Spratt has taken
challenges seriously and will not take Norman lightly, Kedrowski said.
Norman faces a June primary challenge from Clover's Park Gillespie,
who has no political experience but won the Showtime cable network's
"American Candidate" reality show two years ago. Gillespie has chastised
the national and state GOP, saying Norman has already been anointed to
face Spratt.
Sabato said he met Gillespie through the television show -- "I like
Park and wish him well" -- but Gillespie has to face reality that the
Republican machine and its money tree have chosen Norman.
One of the races to watch
While the eventual race between Norman and Spratt won't be national
news, it will be considered one of the "races to watch" because of the
amount of time and money the GOP is putting into trying to topple
Spratt, Kedrowksi said. The national and regional press from Cheney's
visit is a free media bonus for Norman, Kedrowski said.
"The vice president coming to town is news regionally and to some
extent nationally," Kedrowksi said. "I expect some of the presidential
press corps would be here."
However, Cheney's visit won't have media legs past a couple of days,
Sabato said. The reason Cheney is coming is to raise money for Norman to
pay for months of campaigning. And as the campaign season wears on, the
Cheney visit ends up as a big public relations bonus for the York County
Republican Party.
"I know we will make the vice president welcome," said Henry
Eldridge, York County GOP chairman. "He doesn't go everywhere, but he is
coming here."
Even with all the star power associated with Norman's campaign,
Harpootlian, the former state Democratic chairman, said he doesn't think
this will be the year Republicans finally oust Spratt.
"I think John Spratt has been the Rock of Gibraltar in this state,"
he said, citing Spratt's fiscal conservatism and willingness to hold
people accountable on both sides of the political aisle. "He's an asset
the state can't afford to lose."
But said there's always concern heading into an election, he said.
For example, Harpootlian said, Spratt likely will be out spent by Norman
because of Norman's backing by top Washington Republicans.
At last count, Spratt led in both money raised ($478,997) and money
on hand ($736,272), according to data through Dec. 31.
Norman had raised $420,429 and had $404,013 on hand at that time. But
with fundraisers such as the Cheney event Friday, those numbers are
certain to rise.
Not just another challenger
Money could be only part of the equation.
"They're going to have some of the meanest, most vicious spinmeisters
in the world working for them," Harpootlian said of the Republicans.
"But this is basically a race between a guy who is a committed public
servant ... and a guy who's a creation of the political hacks like Karl
Rove."
Still, even with the odds against the Republicans, experts aren't
ready to write Norman off as just another challenger.
"If you get the right candidate with the right message that has
appeal ... he might be able to have the right combination to make a
difference," Clemson's Ransom said. "I would never say never."
Andrew Dys • 329-4065
adys@heraldonline.com
Jason Foster • 329-4066
jfoster@heraldonline.com
