GREENVILLE, S.C. - Few retirements and a dearth of challengers mean it's unlikely the state General Assembly will have any significant power shift after this year's elections.

Less than 30 percent of the 170 legislative seats, or 49 of 170, are being contested, according to an analysis of Democratic and Republican party filing reports by The Greenville News.

State Republican Party Executive Director Luke Byars attributed the limited challenges to the GOP's solid control of both chambers and its attraction to the conservative nature of much of the state's electorate.

"There are some districts that obviously are going to take more money and more organization to go after, and that takes much more commitment from a candidate. It's hard to take on an incumbent," Byars said.

With most districts noncompetitive and no scandals or high-profile issues stirring voters, there is little chance of significant change, said Winthrop University political scientist Scott Huffmon.

"There's very little chance for the Democrats to win back the House this time or the Senate," Huffmon said. "And it's not going to change in the immediate future."

Democrats are focusing on a handful of House and Senate districts, but not enough to restore them to the majorities they lost in 1994 and 2000, respectively.

But state Rep. James Smith of Columbia, the Democratic House leader, sees "a good chance" to win back the Senate, based on strong candidate recruiting, a still shaky state economy and what he said was rising concern over the Bush administration's handling of the war in Iraq.

With a 27-19 GOP edge in the Senate, Democrats need a net gain of four seats just to win an even 23-23 split, and only a handful of the 23 contested seats are competitive.

State Democratic Party Chairman Joe Erwin has said Democrats must concentrate on clawing their way back over several election cycles to be within striking distance.

Some changes will come from retirements and the possibility of a rare primary or general election upset.

In the Senate, whose members run every four years, 23 of the 46 seats have candidates from both major parties. For the Nov. 2 general election, there will be 14 GOP Senate primaries, and nine Democratic-held districts will have head-to-head contests.

Only 26 of 124 House districts are being contested. Of those, 14 have Republican incumbents or retiring GOP members and 12 have Democrats.

Republicans have the edge in the House, 75-49. Democrats will mount 13 House primaries, five of them involving incumbents. There will be 13 Republican House primaries with seven incumbents facing challenges.

In the 46-seat Senate, there will be 10 Democratic primaries with eight incumbents involved and 10 GOP primaries in which four incumbents are being challenged.

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Information from: The Greenville News, http://www.greenvillenews.com/