Posted on Sun, Jul. 13, 2003


Despite late start, Graham still has shot in S.C.


On Politics

With the first votes of the 2004 presidential race to be cast in less than a year, U.S. Sen. Bob Graham, of Florida, finds himself playing catch-up in South Carolina.

He is months behind his Democratic competitors, who have been busy raising money, assembling staffs, picking up endorsements and campaigning across the state.

Graham got started late because he underwent major heart surgery in January.

In a recent visit to the state, the senator pronounced himself fit.

"I'm in better shape today than I was six months ago," he said in an interview.

Graham, at 66, is the oldest of the Democrats pursuing the nomination.

The senator faces a daunting schedule in trying to make up for lost time. He must introduce himself to voters in key states if he hopes to compete in the early contests in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.

He first visited South Carolina on May 2 to participate in a nationally televised debate.

He returned a week and a half ago to meet with former Govs. Jim Hodges and Dick Riley and African-American leaders. He left without any endorsements.

Blacks are expected to make up a majority of voters in South Carolina's Democratic presidential primary Feb. 3. That fact is not lost on Graham. He spent a good deal of his time in the state talking with black community leaders and touring Allen University in Columbia.

He intends to wage an aggressive campaign here.

"The South Carolina primary is very important," Graham said, because it is the first with a sizable black vote. It's also the first in the South.

"South Carolina is more of an open race," he said.

Asked whether he had to win South Carolina, Graham replied, "We have to beat expectations. And that will be clearer in January," he said.

Experts say the Floridian has to win, place or show in the first two contests in Iowa and New Hampshire if he hopes to come into South Carolina with any momentum.

Polls in those states show him trailing far behind, in single digits.

"We're going to run a strong campaign here," Graham promised.

Although he started organizing late here, he doesn't seem to have lost much ground with voters. The public hasn't really focused on the race. Voters have been preoccupied with the war in Iraq and other more pressing matters.

A recent poll in South Carolina showed 47 percent of the voters undecided.

"We're looking for that 47 percent," Graham said.

The senator likes his chances.

Graham, who served eight years as Florida governor before being elected to the Senate 16 years ago, casts himself as the Democrats' most experienced and electable presidential candidate. He's a bona fide Southerner, and he considers himself an expert on homeland security and terrorism. Graham is the ranking Democrat on the Senate Intelligence Committee.

Graham hopes history is on his side. No Democrat from the North has won the White House since 1960. The only victors have been Southern governors -- Jimmy Carter, of Georgia, in 1976 and Bill Clinton, of Arkansas, in 1992 and 1996.

Florida will likely be a battleground again in November 2004. Its 29 electoral votes determined the election last time after an agonizing court fight.

Democrats can win the White House in 2004, Graham says, with a candidate like him, "moderate and pragmatic."

Graham's candidacy can't be dismissed. His competitors who've spent a lot more time here than he has haven't budged in the polls. They seem to be running in place.

Don't write Graham off yet. Despite his late start, he could be a sleeper in the race.





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