In 2004,
legislative action moved from general election to
primaries
By CINDI ROSS SCOPPE Associate Editor
WHEN THE time-honored tradition of gerrymandering met up with
modern-day computers and their ability to slice and dice not just
neighborhoods but individual blocks according to voting patterns, it
was only a question of when incumbents would be able to manipulate
their districts so precisely that the partisan makeup of legislative
bodies would become nearly impervious to the public will.
Here in South Carolina, we came about as close as you can to
“when” this month, as the partisan composition changed by a single
seat each in the House and in the Senate. The parties fought to a
similar near-standstill in the House two years ago, but senators
weren’t on the ballot then. This year’s elections marked the
smallest change in party control of the two bodies in the two
decades since the Republicans began their ascent from irrelevance to
hegemony. And while the current balance may reflect the public will
at the moment, the manipulative drawing of the districts will allow
both parties to maintain roughly this same balance even if the
public will changes — either way.
“It’s becoming more firm and fast that if you draw districts on
the basis of creating majority-minority influence seats as your
number one criterion, and your number two criterion is allowing
incumbents to maintain a semblance of their district, then what you
end up with are seats that are going to be decided in primaries and
that’s it,” House Republican Leader Jim Merrill told me.
Democrats picked up one Senate seat on Nov. 2, to trim the GOP
advantage to 26-20, when popular Democratic Rep. Joel Lourie knocked
off Columbia attorney Ken Wingate to win the seat of retiring GOP
Sen. Warren Giese, whose popular son, GOP Solicitor Barney Giese,
endorsed Mr. Lourie.
In the House, there is dispute over which party picked up the one
seat. Democrats say they did, by knocking off Republican Rep. Bubber
Snow and cutting the GOP lead to 74-50. It feels bizarre to refer to
Mr. Snow as a Republican, and that’s the gist of the Republican
argument: Mr. Snow, who had served as a Democratic representative
for 22 years, switched parties in the spring, after it became
apparent that he couldn’t survive a Democratic primary. Since they
started the year with 73 members and ended it with 74 (thanks to
another party-switcher who was re-elected), Republicans say, they
were the one-seat winners.
Whichever argument you buy, the inescapable and crucial fact is
that Republicans remain in solid control in both bodies, with little
reason to believe that will change any time soon. That suggests that
if the General Assembly is to take a different course, it will be
because a different kind of Republican is elected to replace
Republicans already there.
It’s too early to get a feel for whether there was a substantive
difference between the seven Republicans who retired this year and
the seven who won open seats. But it’s not too early to think it
significant that while Rep. Snow was the only legislator to lose a
general election contest, six were defeated in primaries — five of
them Republicans.
It’s always dangerous to read too much into such small numbers,
particularly since primaries are often marked by local
considerations or matters of personality, but the primaries and
their aftermath suggest a change within the GOP that could be in the
offing.
The primaries themselves — which saw the defeat of three House
Republicans with a combined 58 years service and two Republican
senators who had been thorns in the side of the governor — were
viewed by many as a repudiation of the Legislature’s status-quo
approach and an embrace of Gov. Mark Sanford’s aggressive challenge
to the way business has always been done.
The reaction to those primary results within the House Republican
Caucus seemed to indicate that this was precisely the message
received. The caucus replaced Republican Leader Rick Quinn, one of
the three primary losers, with Mr. Merrill, who has been among the
House Republicans more able to get along with the governor and more
willing to challenge the House GOP leadership of Speaker David
Wilkins.
Mr. Merrill and Mr. Wilkins are quick to point out that the House
passed 14 of the 16 items the governor identified as priorities last
session. But the relationship between House Republicans and Mr.
Sanford has been rocky at best; and, as one Republican told me, “You
don’t have longtime stalwarts like Teddy Trotter and Larry Koon and
Rick Quinn be defeated and not acknowledge some belief that there’s
some push for a breath of fresh air.”
In the Senate, Republicans and some Democrats had already agreed
to make changing that body’s obstructionist rules their top priority
in January. That effort could only have been boosted when the three
senators who lost in primaries — Republicans John Kuhn and Bill
Branton and Democrat Maggie Glover — were well-known abusers of the
rules.
If the elections do result in a new direction for the General
Assembly, it won’t be because of the two-party competition that has
driven change for the past two decades. It will be because
sophisticated gerrymandering has hastened our return to a one-party
state where the party in charge is too big to avoid internal
divisions that are the driving force behind whatever changes we
get.
Ms. Scoppe can be reached at cscoppe@thestate.com or at
(803)
771-8571. |