They wax on and on
about taxes ... Here are the facts
behind Senate hopefuls' ads HENRY EICHEL Columbia Bureau
COLUMBIA - Democrat Inez Tenenbaum and
Republican Jim DeMint have boiled down their race for the U.S.
Senate to a single argument: My opponent wants to raise your
taxes.
Their television commercials make it sound simple.
Tenenbaum warns of DeMint's "new 23 percent federal sales tax on
just about everything we buy." A DeMint commercial says "Inez
Tenenbaum supported the largest tax increase in state history,
almost a billion dollars a year."
Both candidates' ads oversimplify to the point of being
misleading. What's more, Tenenbaum and DeMint are now spending
almost all their time arguing the pros and cons of an idea that
probably will never be adopted.
Here are the facts:
• DeMint, a three-term U.S. House
member, last year joined 53 House Republicans in sponsoring a bill,
H.R. 25, that would abolish all federal income taxes and other
payroll taxes and replace them with a 23-cent national sales tax.
Part of the sales tax would be rebated to people in monthly checks
averaging about $400 per family. DeMint has also introduced a bill
to create a nonpartisan commission to study alternatives to the
income tax and come up with a replacement.
• Tenenbaum, South Carolina's
elected state superintendent of education, in 2003 came out in favor
of a 2-cent hike in the state sales tax for the public schools. That
idea was later folded into a proposal for the state to assume all
public school operating costs, thereby cutting most people's local
property tax bills about in half.
The 23-cent sales tax has become the consuming issue of the
Senate campaign because Tenenbaum, who is behind in the race, has
made it so. For the last month, it has been virtually all she has
talked about, in her commercials and in her daily campaign
stops.
DeMint reacted by accusing Tenenbaum of lying, while branding her
the real tax-lover in the race.
At the time Tenenbaum called for new taxes, South Carolina was in
the midst of a budget crisis and the state's public schools were
facing a cut in the per-pupil allocation -- the base amount that
goes mostly toward teacher salaries.
During a rally on the State House steps in April 2003, Tenenbaum
said that without more state money, thousands of teachers would have
to be laid off. She said that she and some lawmakers were working on
a plan for a 2-cent increase in either state sales tax, the
cigarette tax, the gasoline tax, or the beer and wine tax.
The final plan, which would raise the sales tax by 2 cents while
lowering property taxes, was presented to the legislature later in
2003 by then-House Republican leader Rick Quinn and Democratic Rep.
Vincent Sheheen. So far, lawmakers have failed to act on it, and
Quinn's defeat in the June 2004 Republican primary has put the plan
on hold. As for DeMint's tax proposal, economic experts say that
while replacing the nation's complicated tax laws with a sales tax
or a flat tax, may sound attractive, it is loaded with unknowns.
Among those is whether it could really pay for all the things
government spends money on.
"His supposed goal of simplifying the tax structure by a massive
overhaul is a fool's errand; it's not going to happen," said
University of South Carolina economics professor James Bradley, a
former chairman of the state's Board of Economic Advisers.
Political observers say Democrats in Congress would never allow a
sales-tax bill to go through because they think it would shift the
tax burden onto lower-income people.
"It's an interesting idea from the standpoint of theory, but I
can't see it ever going through," said Danielle Vinson, a political
science professor at Furman University in Greenville.
Vinson said she suspects that DeMint realizes his sales tax idea
is far-fetched. "On a lot of the ideas that I've heard him espouse
over the last six years, I think he's just someone who likes to
consider new options, even some that aren't terribly realistic."
Both sides say their polls show a closer race than two weeks ago,
though their numbers vary greatly. While Tenenbaum's handlers say
she has pulled to within the poll's 4 percentage points margin of
error, DeMint's campaign manager, Terry Sullivan, says DeMint still
holds a 9-point lead.
Political observers say Tenenbaum appears to be getting some
advantage from the tax issue, but they say she will need more than
that if she hopes to win in this Republican-leaning state. The
Senate seat that Tenenbaum and DeMint are contesting is held by
Democrat Ernest "Fritz" Hollings, who is stepping down after 38
years.
"My guess is that Tenenbaum could gain some traction attacking
this (tax) because she's oversimplifying his plan dramatically,"
Vinson said. "Her ads leave out the rebates, and they don't mention
the income tax going away at all."
Vinson said DeMint will have difficulty explaining his plan -- as
his latest TV commercial, released Friday, attempts to do -- "just
because his plan isn't easy to summarize in 30 seconds. She can
easily get through to people in 30 seconds saying, `You're going to
be paying 23 percent on everything you buy.' "
But, said Earl Black, a political science professor at Rice
University in Houston and an authority on Southern politics, "It's
pretty difficult to take a single issue in a state and really make
that an issue that changes a lot of minds and a lot of votes in a
short period."
He said, "Most people are going by the big symbols of `R' and
`D.' Democrats are viewed more as the party of big government and
hence, additional taxation. It's very difficult for an individual
candidate to change those perceptions that have come out of national
politics for a long, long
time." |